Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China
Research on land use change is helpful to better understand the processes and mechanisms of land use changes and provide a decision base for reasonable land development. However, studies on LUCC were mainly conducted for megalopolises and urban agglomerations in China, but there is a gap in the scho...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/16/4041 |
| _version_ | 1797408118620028928 |
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| author | Nina Xiong Rongxia Yu Feng Yan Jia Wang Zhongke Feng |
| author_facet | Nina Xiong Rongxia Yu Feng Yan Jia Wang Zhongke Feng |
| author_sort | Nina Xiong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research on land use change is helpful to better understand the processes and mechanisms of land use changes and provide a decision base for reasonable land development. However, studies on LUCC were mainly conducted for megalopolises and urban agglomerations in China, but there is a gap in the scholarly community when it comes to shrinking small cities where the population decreased sharply under the influence of the urban expansion of megacities. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the evolution rule of land use in these regions. This study takes Qishan County in Shanxi Province as the research subject and analyzes the land use change over the last 20 years with remote sensing technology. Comparing the two LUCC models of the CA-Markov Model and the LCM Model, an optimal model is used to predict and simulate land use change under three potential scenarios in 2030. The conclusions are stated as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land area increased originally and subsequently decreased, and forest land continued to decrease at a progressively slower speed. In contrast, the urban land area expanded significantly. (2) The comprehensive dynamic change in water land is the most significant, indicating that this is an unstable land resource in the region and more attention should be given to this matter. (3) The scenario of water area protection indicates that the inhibition of the transition of water areas can protect their vulnerable ecological environment without negatively impacting economic development. Furthermore, the ongoing focus on economic development in the region is related to the rapid disappearance of cultivated land, which is not an optimistic perspective for the area’s ecosystem. The results of this study implied land transition features and mechanisms in Qishan County, providing novel insights for decision support for county-level land use planning. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:53:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b3def4e7e67d4033b5a3dafd023dadf1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:53:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-b3def4e7e67d4033b5a3dafd023dadf12023-12-03T14:24:48ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922022-08-011416404110.3390/rs14164041Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, ChinaNina Xiong0Rongxia Yu1Feng Yan2Jia Wang3Zhongke Feng4Beijing Key Laboratory of Precise Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Qinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, ChinaManagement Research Department, Beijing Municipal Institute of City Management, Jia 48# Shangjialou, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100028, ChinaManagement Research Department, Beijing Municipal Institute of City Management, Jia 48# Shangjialou, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100028, ChinaBeijing Key Laboratory of Precise Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Qinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, ChinaBeijing Key Laboratory of Precise Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Qinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, ChinaResearch on land use change is helpful to better understand the processes and mechanisms of land use changes and provide a decision base for reasonable land development. However, studies on LUCC were mainly conducted for megalopolises and urban agglomerations in China, but there is a gap in the scholarly community when it comes to shrinking small cities where the population decreased sharply under the influence of the urban expansion of megacities. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the evolution rule of land use in these regions. This study takes Qishan County in Shanxi Province as the research subject and analyzes the land use change over the last 20 years with remote sensing technology. Comparing the two LUCC models of the CA-Markov Model and the LCM Model, an optimal model is used to predict and simulate land use change under three potential scenarios in 2030. The conclusions are stated as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land area increased originally and subsequently decreased, and forest land continued to decrease at a progressively slower speed. In contrast, the urban land area expanded significantly. (2) The comprehensive dynamic change in water land is the most significant, indicating that this is an unstable land resource in the region and more attention should be given to this matter. (3) The scenario of water area protection indicates that the inhibition of the transition of water areas can protect their vulnerable ecological environment without negatively impacting economic development. Furthermore, the ongoing focus on economic development in the region is related to the rapid disappearance of cultivated land, which is not an optimistic perspective for the area’s ecosystem. The results of this study implied land transition features and mechanisms in Qishan County, providing novel insights for decision support for county-level land use planning.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/16/4041transition matrixdynamic indexsuitability atlastransition probability imageCA-Markov modelLCM model |
| spellingShingle | Nina Xiong Rongxia Yu Feng Yan Jia Wang Zhongke Feng Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China Remote Sensing transition matrix dynamic index suitability atlas transition probability image CA-Markov model LCM model |
| title | Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China |
| title_full | Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China |
| title_fullStr | Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China |
| title_short | Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Prediction Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Qishan County, China |
| title_sort | land use and land cover changes and prediction based on multi scenario simulation a case study of qishan county china |
| topic | transition matrix dynamic index suitability atlas transition probability image CA-Markov model LCM model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/16/4041 |
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