Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe
The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global en...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2004-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/4/315/2004/nhess-4-315-2004.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811266663268483072 |
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| author | C. Marsigli A. Montani F. Nerozzi T. Paccagnella |
| author_facet | C. Marsigli A. Montani F. Nerozzi T. Paccagnella |
| author_sort | C. Marsigli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to several national weather services. COSMO-LEPS has been constructed in order to have a probabilistic system with high resolution, focussing the attention on extreme events in regions with complex orography. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS for a heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe in August 2002 has been examined. At the 4-day forecast range, the probability maps indicate the possibility of the overcoming of high precipitation thresholds (up to 150mm/24h) over the region actually affected by the flood. Furthermore, one out of the five ensemble members predicts 4 days ahead a precipitation structure very similar to the observed one. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:47:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b3e1555ef20546b1af8b574a2eb1957f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:47:23Z |
| publishDate | 2004-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-b3e1555ef20546b1af8b574a2eb1957f2022-12-22T03:17:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812004-01-0142315322Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central EuropeC. MarsigliA. MontaniF. NerozziT. PaccagnellaThe limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to several national weather services. COSMO-LEPS has been constructed in order to have a probabilistic system with high resolution, focussing the attention on extreme events in regions with complex orography. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS for a heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe in August 2002 has been examined. At the 4-day forecast range, the probability maps indicate the possibility of the overcoming of high precipitation thresholds (up to 150mm/24h) over the region actually affected by the flood. Furthermore, one out of the five ensemble members predicts 4 days ahead a precipitation structure very similar to the observed one.http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/4/315/2004/nhess-4-315-2004.pdf |
| spellingShingle | C. Marsigli A. Montani F. Nerozzi T. Paccagnella Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe |
| title_full | Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe |
| title_short | Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe |
| title_sort | probabilistic high resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over central europe |
| url | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/4/315/2004/nhess-4-315-2004.pdf |
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