Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences
Land surface models are used to provide global estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes after past and future change land use change (LUC), in particular re-/deforestation. To evaluate how well the models capture decadal-scale changes in SOC after LUC, we provide the first consistent compariso...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be1 |
| _version_ | 1827870240802865152 |
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| author | Lena R Boysen Victor Brovkin David Wårlind Daniele Peano Anne Sofie Lansø Christine Delire Eleanor Burke Christopher Poeplau Axel Don |
| author_facet | Lena R Boysen Victor Brovkin David Wårlind Daniele Peano Anne Sofie Lansø Christine Delire Eleanor Burke Christopher Poeplau Axel Don |
| author_sort | Lena R Boysen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land surface models are used to provide global estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes after past and future change land use change (LUC), in particular re-/deforestation. To evaluate how well the models capture decadal-scale changes in SOC after LUC, we provide the first consistent comparison of simulated time series of LUC by six land models all of which participated in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) with soil carbon chronosequences (SCCs). For this comparison we use SOC measurements of adjacent plots at four high-quality data sites in temperate and tropical regions. We find that initial SOC stocks differ among models due to different approaches to represent SOC. Models generally meet the direction of SOC change after reforestation of cropland but the amplitude and rate of changes vary strongly among them. The normalized root mean square errors of the multi model mean range from 0.5 to 0.8 across sites and 0.1–0.7 when excluding outliers. Further, models simulate SOC losses after deforestation for crop or grassland too slow due to the lack of crop harvest impacts in the models or an overestimation of the SOC recovery on grassland. The representation of management, especially nitrogen levels is important to capture drops in SOC after land abandonment for forest regrowth. Crop harvest and fire management are important to match SOC dynamics but more difficult to quantify as SCC rarely report on these events. Based on our findings, we identify strengths and propose potential improvements of the applied models in simulating SOC changes after LUC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b400a2f30f1c41a18d55931a80068749 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:59Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b400a2f30f1c41a18d55931a800687492023-08-09T15:01:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116707403010.1088/1748-9326/ac0be1Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequencesLena R Boysen0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6671-4984Victor Brovkin1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6420-3198David Wårlind2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6257-0338Daniele Peano3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6975-4447Anne Sofie Lansø4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4746-5924Christine Delire5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6114-3211Eleanor Burke6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2158-141XChristopher Poeplau7Axel Don8https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7046-3332Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The land in the Earth System , Hamburg, GermanyMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, The land in the Earth System , Hamburg, Germany; Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg , Hamburg, GermanyInstitute for Physical Geography and Ecosystem Sciences, Lund University , Lund, SwedenFondazione Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici , Bologna, ItalyLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE/IPSL) CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay , Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceCNRS, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France , Toulouse, FranceMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter EX1 3PB, United KingdomThünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture , Braunschweig, GermanyThünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture , Braunschweig, GermanyLand surface models are used to provide global estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes after past and future change land use change (LUC), in particular re-/deforestation. To evaluate how well the models capture decadal-scale changes in SOC after LUC, we provide the first consistent comparison of simulated time series of LUC by six land models all of which participated in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) with soil carbon chronosequences (SCCs). For this comparison we use SOC measurements of adjacent plots at four high-quality data sites in temperate and tropical regions. We find that initial SOC stocks differ among models due to different approaches to represent SOC. Models generally meet the direction of SOC change after reforestation of cropland but the amplitude and rate of changes vary strongly among them. The normalized root mean square errors of the multi model mean range from 0.5 to 0.8 across sites and 0.1–0.7 when excluding outliers. Further, models simulate SOC losses after deforestation for crop or grassland too slow due to the lack of crop harvest impacts in the models or an overestimation of the SOC recovery on grassland. The representation of management, especially nitrogen levels is important to capture drops in SOC after land abandonment for forest regrowth. Crop harvest and fire management are important to match SOC dynamics but more difficult to quantify as SCC rarely report on these events. Based on our findings, we identify strengths and propose potential improvements of the applied models in simulating SOC changes after LUC.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be1soil carbonland use changemodel-data intercomparisonchronosequences |
| spellingShingle | Lena R Boysen Victor Brovkin David Wårlind Daniele Peano Anne Sofie Lansø Christine Delire Eleanor Burke Christopher Poeplau Axel Don Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences Environmental Research Letters soil carbon land use change model-data intercomparison chronosequences |
| title | Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences |
| title_full | Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences |
| title_short | Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences |
| title_sort | evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in cmip6 land models using chronosequences |
| topic | soil carbon land use change model-data intercomparison chronosequences |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be1 |
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