Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021
Abstract Excess mortalities are a more accurate indicator of true COVID-19 disease burden. This study aims to investigate levels of excess all-cause mortality and their geographic, age and sex distributions between January 2020-September 2021. National mortality data between January 2016 and Septemb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26927-z |
| _version_ | 1797958758123438080 |
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| author | Vivek Jason Jayaraj Diane Woei-Quan Chong Kim-Sui Wan Noran Naqiah Hairi Nirmala Bhoo-Pathy Sanjay Rampal Chiu-Wan Ng |
| author_facet | Vivek Jason Jayaraj Diane Woei-Quan Chong Kim-Sui Wan Noran Naqiah Hairi Nirmala Bhoo-Pathy Sanjay Rampal Chiu-Wan Ng |
| author_sort | Vivek Jason Jayaraj |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Excess mortalities are a more accurate indicator of true COVID-19 disease burden. This study aims to investigate levels of excess all-cause mortality and their geographic, age and sex distributions between January 2020-September 2021. National mortality data between January 2016 and September 2021 from the Department of Statistics Malaysia was utilised. Baseline mortality was estimated using the Farrington algorithm and data between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2019. The occurrence of excess all-cause mortality by geographic-, age- and sex-stratum was examined from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2021. A sub-analysis was also conducted for road-traffic accidents, ethnicity and nationality. Malaysia had a 5.5–23.7% reduction in all-cause mortality across 2020. A reversal is observed in 2021, with an excess of 13.0–24.0%. Excess mortality density is highest between July and September 2021. All states and sexes reported excess trends consistent with the national trends. There were reductions in all all-cause mortalities in individuals under the age of 15 (0.4–8.1%) and road traffic accident-related mortalities (36.6–80.5%). These reductions were higher during the first Movement Control Order in 2020. Overall, there appears to be a reduction in all-cause mortality for Malaysia in 2020. This trend is reversed in 2021, with excess mortalities being observed. Surveillance of excess mortalities can allow expedient detection of aberrant events allowing timely health system and public health responses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T00:23:14Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T00:23:14Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-b400a40e110a454798b7b6d5a8fae3d12023-01-08T12:09:01ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-01-0113111010.1038/s41598-022-26927-zEstimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021Vivek Jason Jayaraj0Diane Woei-Quan Chong1Kim-Sui Wan2Noran Naqiah Hairi3Nirmala Bhoo-Pathy4Sanjay Rampal5Chiu-Wan Ng6Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaDepartment of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of MalayaAbstract Excess mortalities are a more accurate indicator of true COVID-19 disease burden. This study aims to investigate levels of excess all-cause mortality and their geographic, age and sex distributions between January 2020-September 2021. National mortality data between January 2016 and September 2021 from the Department of Statistics Malaysia was utilised. Baseline mortality was estimated using the Farrington algorithm and data between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2019. The occurrence of excess all-cause mortality by geographic-, age- and sex-stratum was examined from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2021. A sub-analysis was also conducted for road-traffic accidents, ethnicity and nationality. Malaysia had a 5.5–23.7% reduction in all-cause mortality across 2020. A reversal is observed in 2021, with an excess of 13.0–24.0%. Excess mortality density is highest between July and September 2021. All states and sexes reported excess trends consistent with the national trends. There were reductions in all all-cause mortalities in individuals under the age of 15 (0.4–8.1%) and road traffic accident-related mortalities (36.6–80.5%). These reductions were higher during the first Movement Control Order in 2020. Overall, there appears to be a reduction in all-cause mortality for Malaysia in 2020. This trend is reversed in 2021, with excess mortalities being observed. Surveillance of excess mortalities can allow expedient detection of aberrant events allowing timely health system and public health responses.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26927-z |
| spellingShingle | Vivek Jason Jayaraj Diane Woei-Quan Chong Kim-Sui Wan Noran Naqiah Hairi Nirmala Bhoo-Pathy Sanjay Rampal Chiu-Wan Ng Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021 Scientific Reports |
| title | Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021 |
| title_full | Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021 |
| title_short | Estimating excess mortalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia between January 2020 and September 2021 |
| title_sort | estimating excess mortalities due to the covid 19 pandemic in malaysia between january 2020 and september 2021 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26927-z |
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