A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure
Abstract This article presents a Bayesian reliability modelling approach for wind turbines that incorporates the effect of time‐dependent variables. Namely, the technique is used to explore the effect of annual services on wind turbine failure intensity through time for turbines within a currently o...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Wind Energy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2846 |
| _version_ | 1797743875128819712 |
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| author | Fraser Anderson Rafael Dawid David McMillan David García‐Cava |
| author_facet | Fraser Anderson Rafael Dawid David McMillan David García‐Cava |
| author_sort | Fraser Anderson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This article presents a Bayesian reliability modelling approach for wind turbines that incorporates the effect of time‐dependent variables. Namely, the technique is used to explore the effect of annual services on wind turbine failure intensity through time for turbines within a currently operational wind farm. In the operator's experience, turbines seemed to fail more frequently after scheduled maintenance was performed; however, this is an unexplored effect in the literature. Additionally, the effects of seasonality, year of operation and position in the array on failure intensity are explored. These features were included in a Cox‐like model formulation which allows for time‐dependent covariates. Inference was performed via Bayes rule. Results show a spike in failure intensity reaching 1.57 times the baseline in the six days directly proceeding annual servicing, after which failure intensity is reduced compared to baseline. Also observed is a significant year‐on‐year reduction of failure intensity since the introduction of the site's data management system in 2018, a clear preference for modelling time to failure via a Weibull distribution and a dependence on location in the array with respect to the prominent wind direction. Results also show the benefit of employing a Bayesian regime, which provides easily interpretable uncertainty quantification. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:01:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b403789739064e1dbf4227d927977435 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1095-4244 1099-1824 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:01:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wind Energy |
| spelling | doaj.art-b403789739064e1dbf4227d9279774352023-08-14T05:21:00ZengWileyWind Energy1095-42441099-18242023-09-0126987989910.1002/we.2846A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failureFraser Anderson0Rafael Dawid1David McMillan2David García‐Cava3Institute for Energy & Infrastructure University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UKElectronic and Electrical Engineering Strathclyde University Glasgow UKElectronic and Electrical Engineering Strathclyde University Glasgow UKInstitute for Energy & Infrastructure University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UKAbstract This article presents a Bayesian reliability modelling approach for wind turbines that incorporates the effect of time‐dependent variables. Namely, the technique is used to explore the effect of annual services on wind turbine failure intensity through time for turbines within a currently operational wind farm. In the operator's experience, turbines seemed to fail more frequently after scheduled maintenance was performed; however, this is an unexplored effect in the literature. Additionally, the effects of seasonality, year of operation and position in the array on failure intensity are explored. These features were included in a Cox‐like model formulation which allows for time‐dependent covariates. Inference was performed via Bayes rule. Results show a spike in failure intensity reaching 1.57 times the baseline in the six days directly proceeding annual servicing, after which failure intensity is reduced compared to baseline. Also observed is a significant year‐on‐year reduction of failure intensity since the introduction of the site's data management system in 2018, a clear preference for modelling time to failure via a Weibull distribution and a dependence on location in the array with respect to the prominent wind direction. Results also show the benefit of employing a Bayesian regime, which provides easily interpretable uncertainty quantification.https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2846annual servicesO&Moffshore windreliability modelling |
| spellingShingle | Fraser Anderson Rafael Dawid David McMillan David García‐Cava A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure Wind Energy annual services O&M offshore wind reliability modelling |
| title | A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure |
| title_full | A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure |
| title_short | A Bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure |
| title_sort | bayesian reliability analysis exploring the effect of scheduled maintenance on wind turbine time to failure |
| topic | annual services O&M offshore wind reliability modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2846 |
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