The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries
Summary: Background: Road injuries are among the ten leading causes of death worldwide and also impede economic wellbeing and macroeconomic performance. Beyond medical data on the incidence of road injuries and their resulting morbidity and mortality, a detailed understanding of their economic impl...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-09-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Planetary Health |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519619301706 |
| _version_ | 1818913014169993216 |
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| author | Simiao Chen, ScD Michael Kuhn, PhD Klaus Prettner, ProfPhD David E Bloom, ProfPhD |
| author_facet | Simiao Chen, ScD Michael Kuhn, PhD Klaus Prettner, ProfPhD David E Bloom, ProfPhD |
| author_sort | Simiao Chen, ScD |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Road injuries are among the ten leading causes of death worldwide and also impede economic wellbeing and macroeconomic performance. Beyond medical data on the incidence of road injuries and their resulting morbidity and mortality, a detailed understanding of their economic implications is a prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to determine global macroeconomic costs of road traffic injuries and their cross-country distribution. Methods: We calculated the economic burden of all road traffic-related injuries for 166 countries by use of a macroeconomic model that accounts for the effect of fatal and non-fatal injuries on labour supply, age-specific differences in education and experience of those who are affected by road accidents, and the diversion of injury-related treatment expenses from savings, which results in lower investment. Findings: We estimated that road injuries will cost the world economy US$1·8 trillion (constant 2010 US$) in 2015–30, which is equivalent to an annual tax of 0·12% on global gross domestic product. Although low-income and middle-income countries have the largest health burden, their share of the economic burden of road injuries is only 46·4% of the global loss, reflecting in part higher productivity (and earnings) in high-income countries, but also prominently higher treatment costs. Our results also indicate that treatment costs account for a greater proportion of the economic burden in high-income countries than in low-income countries. Interpretation: The macroeconomic burden of road injuries is sizeable and distributed unequally across countries and world regions. This finding suggests a case for nuanced policy making. Our framework should provide a good starting point for the more detailed analysis of policies both at country level and across different countries. Funding: National Institute on Aging. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:23:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b40684ebe33e40c7b66b5b7d154af36a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2542-5196 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:23:45Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Planetary Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-b40684ebe33e40c7b66b5b7d154af36a2022-12-21T20:01:55ZengElsevierThe Lancet Planetary Health2542-51962019-09-0139e390e398The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countriesSimiao Chen, ScD0Michael Kuhn, PhD1Klaus Prettner, ProfPhD2David E Bloom, ProfPhD3Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Correspondence to: Dr Simiao Chen, Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg 69120, GermanyWittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, AustriaInstitute of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, GermanyDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USASummary: Background: Road injuries are among the ten leading causes of death worldwide and also impede economic wellbeing and macroeconomic performance. Beyond medical data on the incidence of road injuries and their resulting morbidity and mortality, a detailed understanding of their economic implications is a prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to determine global macroeconomic costs of road traffic injuries and their cross-country distribution. Methods: We calculated the economic burden of all road traffic-related injuries for 166 countries by use of a macroeconomic model that accounts for the effect of fatal and non-fatal injuries on labour supply, age-specific differences in education and experience of those who are affected by road accidents, and the diversion of injury-related treatment expenses from savings, which results in lower investment. Findings: We estimated that road injuries will cost the world economy US$1·8 trillion (constant 2010 US$) in 2015–30, which is equivalent to an annual tax of 0·12% on global gross domestic product. Although low-income and middle-income countries have the largest health burden, their share of the economic burden of road injuries is only 46·4% of the global loss, reflecting in part higher productivity (and earnings) in high-income countries, but also prominently higher treatment costs. Our results also indicate that treatment costs account for a greater proportion of the economic burden in high-income countries than in low-income countries. Interpretation: The macroeconomic burden of road injuries is sizeable and distributed unequally across countries and world regions. This finding suggests a case for nuanced policy making. Our framework should provide a good starting point for the more detailed analysis of policies both at country level and across different countries. Funding: National Institute on Aging.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519619301706 |
| spellingShingle | Simiao Chen, ScD Michael Kuhn, PhD Klaus Prettner, ProfPhD David E Bloom, ProfPhD The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries The Lancet Planetary Health |
| title | The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries |
| title_full | The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries |
| title_fullStr | The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries |
| title_short | The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries |
| title_sort | global macroeconomic burden of road injuries estimates and projections for 166 countries |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519619301706 |
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