Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study
Abstract Background China has one of the highest numbers of liver disease cases in the world, including 6.4 million cirrhosis associated with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cases. However, there is still a lack of urgent awareness about the growth of alcohol consumption and the increased burden...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-07-01
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| Series: | BMC Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-02984-7 |
| _version_ | 1827890404725358592 |
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| author | Meiyu Wu Shuxia Qin Chongqing Tan Sini Li Ouyang Xie Xiaomin Wan |
| author_facet | Meiyu Wu Shuxia Qin Chongqing Tan Sini Li Ouyang Xie Xiaomin Wan |
| author_sort | Meiyu Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background China has one of the highest numbers of liver disease cases in the world, including 6.4 million cirrhosis associated with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cases. However, there is still a lack of urgent awareness about the growth of alcohol consumption and the increased burden of ALD in China. Therefore, we aimed to project the potential impact of changes in alcohol consumption on the burden of ALD in China up to 2040 under different scenarios. Methods We developed a Markov model to simulate the natural history of ALD until 2040 in China. We estimated the incidence and mortality of alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma between 2022 and 2040 under four projected scenarios: status quo scenario and scenarios with a 2%, 4%, and 8% annual decrease in excessive alcohol consumption, respectively. Results Under the status quo scenario, the cumulative new cases of cirrhosis from 2022 to 2040 was projected to be 3.61 million (95% UI 3.03–4.44 million), resulting in a cumulative 1.96 million (1.66–2.32 million) deaths from alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a 2% annual reduction in excessive alcohol consumption was expected to avert 0.3 million deaths associated with ALD, and a 4% annual reduction was projected to prevent about 1.36 million new cases of cirrhosis and prevent 0.5 million ALD-related deaths. Moreover, an 8% annual reduction would prevent about 2 million new cases of cirrhosis and 0.82 million deaths. Conclusions Without any substantial change in alcohol attitudes and policies to regulate excessive drinking, the disease burden of ALD in China will increase enormously. Strengthening the implementation of alcohol restriction interventions is critical and urgent to reduce the impact of ALD on the Chinese population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:09:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b41f51cd651d4642be696ed3f090a0db |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1741-7015 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:09:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-b41f51cd651d4642be696ed3f090a0db2023-07-30T11:17:37ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152023-07-0121111110.1186/s12916-023-02984-7Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling studyMeiyu Wu0Shuxia Qin1Chongqing Tan2Sini Li3Ouyang Xie4Xiaomin Wan5Department of Pharmacy, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South UniversityDepartment of Pharmacy, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South UniversityDepartment of Pharmacy, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South UniversityThe Nethersole School of Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong KongDepartment of Pharmacy, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South UniversityDepartment of Pharmacy, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South UniversityAbstract Background China has one of the highest numbers of liver disease cases in the world, including 6.4 million cirrhosis associated with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cases. However, there is still a lack of urgent awareness about the growth of alcohol consumption and the increased burden of ALD in China. Therefore, we aimed to project the potential impact of changes in alcohol consumption on the burden of ALD in China up to 2040 under different scenarios. Methods We developed a Markov model to simulate the natural history of ALD until 2040 in China. We estimated the incidence and mortality of alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma between 2022 and 2040 under four projected scenarios: status quo scenario and scenarios with a 2%, 4%, and 8% annual decrease in excessive alcohol consumption, respectively. Results Under the status quo scenario, the cumulative new cases of cirrhosis from 2022 to 2040 was projected to be 3.61 million (95% UI 3.03–4.44 million), resulting in a cumulative 1.96 million (1.66–2.32 million) deaths from alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a 2% annual reduction in excessive alcohol consumption was expected to avert 0.3 million deaths associated with ALD, and a 4% annual reduction was projected to prevent about 1.36 million new cases of cirrhosis and prevent 0.5 million ALD-related deaths. Moreover, an 8% annual reduction would prevent about 2 million new cases of cirrhosis and 0.82 million deaths. Conclusions Without any substantial change in alcohol attitudes and policies to regulate excessive drinking, the disease burden of ALD in China will increase enormously. Strengthening the implementation of alcohol restriction interventions is critical and urgent to reduce the impact of ALD on the Chinese population.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-02984-7Alcohol-related liver diseaseBurdenChina |
| spellingShingle | Meiyu Wu Shuxia Qin Chongqing Tan Sini Li Ouyang Xie Xiaomin Wan Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study BMC Medicine Alcohol-related liver disease Burden China |
| title | Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study |
| title_full | Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study |
| title_fullStr | Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study |
| title_short | Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study |
| title_sort | estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol related liver disease in china from 2022 to 2040 a modeling study |
| topic | Alcohol-related liver disease Burden China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-02984-7 |
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