Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models
The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June–September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions fro...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa |
| _version_ | 1797748156801220608 |
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| author | Stephanie Gleixner Noel S Keenlyside Teferi D Demissie François Counillon Yiguo Wang Ellen Viste |
| author_facet | Stephanie Gleixner Noel S Keenlyside Teferi D Demissie François Counillon Yiguo Wang Ellen Viste |
| author_sort | Stephanie Gleixner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June–September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985–2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b4319afc2265467f8bec37bb4cec6382 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:55Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b4319afc2265467f8bec37bb4cec63822023-08-09T14:36:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-01121111401610.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfaSeasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation modelsStephanie Gleixner0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0032-9696Noel S Keenlyside1Teferi D Demissie2François Counillon3Yiguo Wang4Ellen Viste5Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayUni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayGeophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayThe Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June–September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985–2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfaEthiopiaKiremt rainfallseasonal predictionENSOwalker circulation |
| spellingShingle | Stephanie Gleixner Noel S Keenlyside Teferi D Demissie François Counillon Yiguo Wang Ellen Viste Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models Environmental Research Letters Ethiopia Kiremt rainfall seasonal prediction ENSO walker circulation |
| title | Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models |
| title_full | Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models |
| title_short | Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models |
| title_sort | seasonal predictability of kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models |
| topic | Ethiopia Kiremt rainfall seasonal prediction ENSO walker circulation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa |
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