A General Description of Growth Trends

Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables the description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters. The method has been applied to the growth of national GDP, population and the COVID-19 p...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Moshe Elitzur
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2022-02-01
Series:Stats
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/5/1/8
Description
Summary:Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables the description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters. The method has been applied to the growth of national GDP, population and the COVID-19 pandemic; in all cases, the deviations of long-term growth patterns from purely exponential required no more than two additional parameters, mostly only one. Here, I utilize the new framework to develop a unified formulation for all functions that describe growth deceleration, wherein the growth rate decreases with time. The result offers the prospects for a new general tool for trend removal in time-series analysis.
ISSN:2571-905X