Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile
Climate change affects the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Culex pipiens Linnaeus is the main vector of West Nile fever; a widely distributed arbovirus, it is continuously increasing its distribution. Using a species distribution model, maps of suitable habitats of Cx. pipiens were generated for...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidad de Concepción
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Gayana |
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| Online Access: | https://gayana.cl/index.php/gn/article/view/168 |
| _version_ | 1811284994207776768 |
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| author | Daniela P. Figueroa Sergio Scott Christian R. González Gustavo Bizama Raúl Flores-Mara Ramiro Bustamante Mauricio Canals |
| author_facet | Daniela P. Figueroa Sergio Scott Christian R. González Gustavo Bizama Raúl Flores-Mara Ramiro Bustamante Mauricio Canals |
| author_sort | Daniela P. Figueroa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Climate change affects the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Culex pipiens Linnaeus is the main vector of West Nile fever; a widely distributed arbovirus, it is continuously increasing its distribution. Using a species distribution model, maps of suitable habitats of Cx. pipiens were generated for Chile in the current climate and three climate change scenarios, using global and regional georeferenced vector presence records as input, plus bioclimatic variables. Since this virus has not yet arrived in Chile, the purpose of this study is to anticipate potential risk areas and to prevent the establishment and spread of the virus. Cx. pipiens is widely distributed in Chile. The suitable habitats in Chile were concentrated mostly from 32º to 35ºS, increasing in future scenarios up to 113 % in the northern zone and moving towards the mountains. This species conserves around 90 % of its niche in the future, and shows a reduction of 11.4 % in the severe climate change scenario. It is anticipated that Chile will experience an increase in the environmental suitability for Cx. pipiens moving from the Andes to the coastal zone throughout the country, mainly in the center-south. This will raise the risk of local virus transmission if the virus is introduced to the country via diverse routes.
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:37:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b43eff59841e4da0ba94e9c016fd4b56 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0717-652X 0717-6538 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:37:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Universidad de Concepción |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Gayana |
| spelling | doaj.art-b43eff59841e4da0ba94e9c016fd4b562022-12-22T03:06:19ZengUniversidad de ConcepciónGayana0717-652X0717-65382020-06-0184110.4067/S0717-65382020000100046Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in ChileDaniela P. Figueroa0Sergio Scott1Christian R. González2Gustavo Bizama3Raúl Flores-Mara4Ramiro Bustamante5Mauricio CanalsCentro de Investigación Aplicada de Chile (CIACHI), Santiago, ChileCentro de Investigación Aplicada de Chile (CIACHI), Santiago, ChileLaboratorio Entomología Médica, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Santiago, ChileFaculty of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Environmental Sciences and Natural Renewable Resources, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileFacultad de Ciencias de la Salud, E.P. de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Andina “Néstor Cáceres Velásquez”, Puno, PerúDepartamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile Climate change affects the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Culex pipiens Linnaeus is the main vector of West Nile fever; a widely distributed arbovirus, it is continuously increasing its distribution. Using a species distribution model, maps of suitable habitats of Cx. pipiens were generated for Chile in the current climate and three climate change scenarios, using global and regional georeferenced vector presence records as input, plus bioclimatic variables. Since this virus has not yet arrived in Chile, the purpose of this study is to anticipate potential risk areas and to prevent the establishment and spread of the virus. Cx. pipiens is widely distributed in Chile. The suitable habitats in Chile were concentrated mostly from 32º to 35ºS, increasing in future scenarios up to 113 % in the northern zone and moving towards the mountains. This species conserves around 90 % of its niche in the future, and shows a reduction of 11.4 % in the severe climate change scenario. It is anticipated that Chile will experience an increase in the environmental suitability for Cx. pipiens moving from the Andes to the coastal zone throughout the country, mainly in the center-south. This will raise the risk of local virus transmission if the virus is introduced to the country via diverse routes. https://gayana.cl/index.php/gn/article/view/168MaxEntmosquitoesspecies distribution modelsvector-borne diseases |
| spellingShingle | Daniela P. Figueroa Sergio Scott Christian R. González Gustavo Bizama Raúl Flores-Mara Ramiro Bustamante Mauricio Canals Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile Gayana MaxEnt mosquitoes species distribution models vector-borne diseases |
| title | Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile |
| title_full | Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile |
| title_short | Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of Culex pipiens L. 1758, to assess the risk of West Nile virus establishment in Chile |
| title_sort | estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of culex pipiens l 1758 to assess the risk of west nile virus establishment in chile |
| topic | MaxEnt mosquitoes species distribution models vector-borne diseases |
| url | https://gayana.cl/index.php/gn/article/view/168 |
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