APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ
Predicting future movements of tourism demand based solely on the past behaviour of variables such as number of overnight stays is crucial for the development of tourism and mitigation of seasonality. Nowadays, there are many different models that could be used for forecasting. Sometimes, some simp...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Naučno društvo agrarnih ekonomista Balkana, Beograd; Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd i Akademija ekonomskih nauka, Bukurešt
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Ekonomika Poljoprivrede (1979) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/502 |
| _version_ | 1797825132167692288 |
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| author | Aleksandra Vujko Nataša Papić-Blagojević Tamara Gajić |
| author_facet | Aleksandra Vujko Nataša Papić-Blagojević Tamara Gajić |
| author_sort | Aleksandra Vujko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Predicting future movements of tourism demand based solely on the past behaviour of variables such as number of overnight stays is crucial for the development of tourism and mitigation of seasonality. Nowadays, there are many different models that could be used for forecasting. Sometimes, some simpler models could ft better to collected data and, in the other hand, more sophisticated ones are more convenient. In this paper, the exponential smoothing models have been applied on the data that was taken from Republic Statistical Offce (RSO). The research was conducted on monthly data relating to the number of overnight stays in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš during the period from January 2000 to December 2013. Based on the selected data, forecasting was made for overnight stays until May 2018. It is concluded that the selected models correspond to the observed data, and the precision of the obtained predictions is determined by comparing the BIC precision measures.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:49:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b45d2eec8bd940a88234bb3a3f8a4033 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0352-3462 2334-8453 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:49:32Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | Naučno društvo agrarnih ekonomista Balkana, Beograd; Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd i Akademija ekonomskih nauka, Bukurešt |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ekonomika Poljoprivrede (1979) |
| spelling | doaj.art-b45d2eec8bd940a88234bb3a3f8a40332023-05-17T16:57:26ZengNaučno društvo agrarnih ekonomista Balkana, Beograd; Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd i Akademija ekonomskih nauka, BukureštEkonomika Poljoprivrede (1979)0352-34622334-84532018-06-0165210.5937/ekoPolj1802757VAPPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠAleksandra Vujko0Nataša Papić-Blagojević1Tamara Gajić2Novi Sad School of Business, Novi SadNovi Sad School of Business, Novi SadNovi Sad School of Business, Novi Sad Predicting future movements of tourism demand based solely on the past behaviour of variables such as number of overnight stays is crucial for the development of tourism and mitigation of seasonality. Nowadays, there are many different models that could be used for forecasting. Sometimes, some simpler models could ft better to collected data and, in the other hand, more sophisticated ones are more convenient. In this paper, the exponential smoothing models have been applied on the data that was taken from Republic Statistical Offce (RSO). The research was conducted on monthly data relating to the number of overnight stays in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš during the period from January 2000 to December 2013. Based on the selected data, forecasting was made for overnight stays until May 2018. It is concluded that the selected models correspond to the observed data, and the precision of the obtained predictions is determined by comparing the BIC precision measures. https://www.ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/502time series forecastingexponential smoothing modelovernight staysSerbia |
| spellingShingle | Aleksandra Vujko Nataša Papić-Blagojević Tamara Gajić APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ Ekonomika Poljoprivrede (1979) time series forecasting exponential smoothing model overnight stays Serbia |
| title | APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ |
| title_full | APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ |
| title_fullStr | APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ |
| title_full_unstemmed | APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ |
| title_short | APPLYING THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FOR FORECASTING TOURISTS ARRIVALS – EXAMPLE OF NOVI SAD, BELGRADE AND NIŠ |
| title_sort | applying the exponential smoothing model for forecasting tourists arrivals example of novi sad belgrade and nis |
| topic | time series forecasting exponential smoothing model overnight stays Serbia |
| url | https://www.ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/502 |
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