Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy)
We hereby present VolcFire, a new cellular automaton model for fire propagation aimed at the creation of fire hazard maps for fires of volcanic origin. The new model relies on satellite-derived input data for the topography, land-use, fuel, and humidity information, and produces probabilistic maps o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Fire |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/3/70 |
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| author | Roberto Guardo Giuseppe Bilotta Gaetana Ganci Francesco Zuccarello Daniele Andronico Annalisa Cappello |
| author_facet | Roberto Guardo Giuseppe Bilotta Gaetana Ganci Francesco Zuccarello Daniele Andronico Annalisa Cappello |
| author_sort | Roberto Guardo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We hereby present VolcFire, a new cellular automaton model for fire propagation aimed at the creation of fire hazard maps for fires of volcanic origin. The new model relies on satellite-derived input data for the topography, land-use, fuel, and humidity information, and produces probabilistic maps of fire propagation simulating fire spread. The model contains several simplifications compared to the current state-of-the-art, limiting its usability to plan fire-fighting interventions during an event in favour of a reduced computational load. The accuracy and reliability of the model are also discussed by presenting its ability to reproduce two recent fires on Stromboli island, with good spatial fit (Brier score of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>0.146</mn><mo>±</mo><mn>0.002</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for the 3 July 2019 volcanic fire, and of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>0.073</mn><mo>±</mo><mn>0.001</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for the 25 May 2022 anthropogenic fire) and less than <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>1.5</mn><mo>%</mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> variation across multiple simulations for the same event. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:18:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b4be9567b7d1423b9d3c0352f4cdddb3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-6255 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:18:22Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fire |
| spelling | doaj.art-b4be9567b7d1423b9d3c0352f4cdddb32024-03-27T13:38:09ZengMDPI AGFire2571-62552024-02-01737010.3390/fire7030070Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy)Roberto Guardo0Giuseppe Bilotta1Gaetana Ganci2Francesco Zuccarello3Daniele Andronico4Annalisa Cappello5Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, 95125 Catania, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, 95125 Catania, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, 95125 Catania, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, 95125 Catania, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, 95125 Catania, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, 95125 Catania, ItalyWe hereby present VolcFire, a new cellular automaton model for fire propagation aimed at the creation of fire hazard maps for fires of volcanic origin. The new model relies on satellite-derived input data for the topography, land-use, fuel, and humidity information, and produces probabilistic maps of fire propagation simulating fire spread. The model contains several simplifications compared to the current state-of-the-art, limiting its usability to plan fire-fighting interventions during an event in favour of a reduced computational load. The accuracy and reliability of the model are also discussed by presenting its ability to reproduce two recent fires on Stromboli island, with good spatial fit (Brier score of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>0.146</mn><mo>±</mo><mn>0.002</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for the 3 July 2019 volcanic fire, and of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>0.073</mn><mo>±</mo><mn>0.001</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for the 25 May 2022 anthropogenic fire) and less than <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>1.5</mn><mo>%</mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> variation across multiple simulations for the same event.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/3/70cellular automata3 July 2019 eruptionNDVINDMIprobabilistic modelling |
| spellingShingle | Roberto Guardo Giuseppe Bilotta Gaetana Ganci Francesco Zuccarello Daniele Andronico Annalisa Cappello Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy) Fire cellular automata 3 July 2019 eruption NDVI NDMI probabilistic modelling |
| title | Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy) |
| title_full | Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy) |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy) |
| title_short | Modeling Fire Hazards Induced by Volcanic Eruptions: The Case of Stromboli (Italy) |
| title_sort | modeling fire hazards induced by volcanic eruptions the case of stromboli italy |
| topic | cellular automata 3 July 2019 eruption NDVI NDMI probabilistic modelling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/3/70 |
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