Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities

This research presents long-term projects. Applies stochastic models using Monte Carlo simulation to identify the impact that changes have in the input parameters on the output variable (LCOEE). Uses tornado analysis to identify the impact of the input variables. The results show that; in thermoelec...

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Main Authors: Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios, Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas 2021-03-01
Series:Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/621
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author Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios
Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz
author_facet Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios
Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz
author_sort Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios
collection DOAJ
description This research presents long-term projects. Applies stochastic models using Monte Carlo simulation to identify the impact that changes have in the input parameters on the output variable (LCOEE). Uses tornado analysis to identify the impact of the input variables. The results show that; in thermoelectric coal plant, the LCOEE is more sensitive to changes in the price of CO2 emissions than discount rate. In the combined cycle, the LCOEE is most sensitive to the plant factor than CO2 emissions price, discount rate. In the nuclear power plant, the discount rate has greater impact on the LCOE than overnight cost.  In contrast to previous work, this research uses Mexico’s country-risk in the discount rate. This research’s limitation is that the costs related to transmission, distribution, and backup fee are not included. Concluding that stochastic models provide useful information for decision-making by incorporating historical data and projections of the main variables that could affect the output variable (LCOEE).
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spelling doaj.art-b4d5317a3cc64be5b8c8417bff4121a12022-12-22T02:31:40ZengInstituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de FinanzasRevista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF2448-67952021-03-01164e621e62110.21919/remef.v16i4.621424Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering ExternalitiesMaria del Carmen Gomez-Rios0Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz1Universidad Anáhuac MéxicoUniversidad Anáhuac MéxicoThis research presents long-term projects. Applies stochastic models using Monte Carlo simulation to identify the impact that changes have in the input parameters on the output variable (LCOEE). Uses tornado analysis to identify the impact of the input variables. The results show that; in thermoelectric coal plant, the LCOEE is more sensitive to changes in the price of CO2 emissions than discount rate. In the combined cycle, the LCOEE is most sensitive to the plant factor than CO2 emissions price, discount rate. In the nuclear power plant, the discount rate has greater impact on the LCOE than overnight cost.  In contrast to previous work, this research uses Mexico’s country-risk in the discount rate. This research’s limitation is that the costs related to transmission, distribution, and backup fee are not included. Concluding that stochastic models provide useful information for decision-making by incorporating historical data and projections of the main variables that could affect the output variable (LCOEE).https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/621simulación monte carlo, costo nivelado, energía eléctrica, centrales generadoras de carga base, externalidades ambientales
spellingShingle Maria del Carmen Gomez-Rios
Dora Carmen Galvez-Cruz
Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities
Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF
simulación monte carlo, costo nivelado, energía eléctrica, centrales generadoras de carga base, externalidades ambientales
title Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities
title_full Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities
title_fullStr Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities
title_full_unstemmed Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities
title_short Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities
title_sort simulation of levelized costs of electricity considering externalities
topic simulación monte carlo, costo nivelado, energía eléctrica, centrales generadoras de carga base, externalidades ambientales
url https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/621
work_keys_str_mv AT mariadelcarmengomezrios simulationoflevelizedcostsofelectricityconsideringexternalities
AT doracarmengalvezcruz simulationoflevelizedcostsofelectricityconsideringexternalities