COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness
Abstract The rapid spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 and its threat to health systems worldwide have led governments to take acute actions to enforce social distancing. Previous studies used complex epidemiological models to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on infection rates. However, these rely on prio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Nature
2020-11-01
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| Series: | EMBO Molecular Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.15252/emmm.202013171 |
| _version_ | 1797283187649413120 |
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| author | Gil Loewenthal Shiran Abadi Oren Avram Keren Halabi Noa Ecker Natan Nagar Itay Mayrose Tal Pupko |
| author_facet | Gil Loewenthal Shiran Abadi Oren Avram Keren Halabi Noa Ecker Natan Nagar Itay Mayrose Tal Pupko |
| author_sort | Gil Loewenthal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The rapid spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 and its threat to health systems worldwide have led governments to take acute actions to enforce social distancing. Previous studies used complex epidemiological models to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on infection rates. However, these rely on prior assumptions or on official regulations. Here, we use country‐specific reports of daily mobility from people cellular usage to model social distancing. Our data‐driven model enabled the extraction of lockdown characteristics which were crossed with observed mortality rates to show that: (i) the time at which social distancing was initiated is highly correlated with the number of deaths, r2 = 0.64, while the lockdown strictness or its duration is not as informative; (ii) a delay of 7.49 days in initiating social distancing would double the number of deaths; and (iii) the immediate response has a prolonged effect on COVID‐19 death toll. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T17:27:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b4ed8fd0f3df49e0937ba6a2167da732 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1757-4676 1757-4684 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T17:27:28Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | Springer Nature |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EMBO Molecular Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-b4ed8fd0f3df49e0937ba6a2167da7322024-03-02T18:45:29ZengSpringer NatureEMBO Molecular Medicine1757-46761757-46842020-11-011211n/an/a10.15252/emmm.202013171COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictnessGil Loewenthal0Shiran Abadi1Oren Avram2Keren Halabi3Noa Ecker4Natan Nagar5Itay Mayrose6Tal Pupko7The Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelSchool of Plant Sciences and Food Security George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelThe Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelSchool of Plant Sciences and Food Security George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelThe Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelThe Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelSchool of Plant Sciences and Food Security George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelThe Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv IsraelAbstract The rapid spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 and its threat to health systems worldwide have led governments to take acute actions to enforce social distancing. Previous studies used complex epidemiological models to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on infection rates. However, these rely on prior assumptions or on official regulations. Here, we use country‐specific reports of daily mobility from people cellular usage to model social distancing. Our data‐driven model enabled the extraction of lockdown characteristics which were crossed with observed mortality rates to show that: (i) the time at which social distancing was initiated is highly correlated with the number of deaths, r2 = 0.64, while the lockdown strictness or its duration is not as informative; (ii) a delay of 7.49 days in initiating social distancing would double the number of deaths; and (iii) the immediate response has a prolonged effect on COVID‐19 death toll.https://doi.org/10.15252/emmm.202013171coronavirusCOVID‐19epidemiology modelinglockdownmobility data |
| spellingShingle | Gil Loewenthal Shiran Abadi Oren Avram Keren Halabi Noa Ecker Natan Nagar Itay Mayrose Tal Pupko COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness EMBO Molecular Medicine coronavirus COVID‐19 epidemiology modeling lockdown mobility data |
| title | COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness |
| title_full | COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness |
| title_fullStr | COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness |
| title_short | COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness |
| title_sort | covid 19 pandemic related lockdown response time is more important than its strictness |
| topic | coronavirus COVID‐19 epidemiology modeling lockdown mobility data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.15252/emmm.202013171 |
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