Predicting extinctions with species distribution models
Predictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why the translation of SDM results to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenged and why critical SDM assumptions are u...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Cambridge Prisms: Extinction |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2755095823000050/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797799581818290176 |
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| author | Damaris Zurell Susanne A. Fritz Anna Rönnfeldt Manuel J. Steinbauer |
| author_facet | Damaris Zurell Susanne A. Fritz Anna Rönnfeldt Manuel J. Steinbauer |
| author_sort | Damaris Zurell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why the translation of SDM results to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenged and why critical SDM assumptions are unlikely to be met under climate change. Published SDM-derived extinction estimates are based on a positive relationship between range size decline and extinction risk, which empirically is not well understood. Importantly, the classification criteria used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were not meant for this purpose and are often misused. Future predictive studies would profit considerably from a better understanding of the extinction risk–range decline relationship, particularly regarding the persistence and non-random distribution of the few last individuals in dwindling populations. Nevertheless, in the face of the ongoing climate and biodiversity crises, there is a high demand for predictions of future extinction risks. Despite prevailing challenges, we agree that SDMs currently provide the most accessible method to assess climate-related extinction risk across multiple species. We summarise current good practice in how SDMs can serve to classify species into IUCN extinction risk categories and predict whether a species is likely to become threatened under future climate. However, the uncertainties associated with translating predicted range declines into quantitative extinction risk need to be adequately communicated and extinction predictions should only be attempted with carefully conducted SDMs that openly communicate the limitations and uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:21:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b4ef07432fc54c54bfcb7b8cc9953844 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2755-0958 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:21:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cambridge Prisms: Extinction |
| spelling | doaj.art-b4ef07432fc54c54bfcb7b8cc99538442023-06-20T10:01:07ZengCambridge University PressCambridge Prisms: Extinction2755-09582023-01-01110.1017/ext.2023.5Predicting extinctions with species distribution modelsDamaris Zurell0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4628-3558Susanne A. Fritz1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4085-636XAnna Rönnfeldt2Manuel J. Steinbauer3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7142-9272Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanySenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (S-BiKF), Frankfurt, Germany Institut für Geowissenschaften, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, GermanyInstitute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyBayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany Bayreuth Center of Sport Science, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, NorwayPredictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why the translation of SDM results to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenged and why critical SDM assumptions are unlikely to be met under climate change. Published SDM-derived extinction estimates are based on a positive relationship between range size decline and extinction risk, which empirically is not well understood. Importantly, the classification criteria used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were not meant for this purpose and are often misused. Future predictive studies would profit considerably from a better understanding of the extinction risk–range decline relationship, particularly regarding the persistence and non-random distribution of the few last individuals in dwindling populations. Nevertheless, in the face of the ongoing climate and biodiversity crises, there is a high demand for predictions of future extinction risks. Despite prevailing challenges, we agree that SDMs currently provide the most accessible method to assess climate-related extinction risk across multiple species. We summarise current good practice in how SDMs can serve to classify species into IUCN extinction risk categories and predict whether a species is likely to become threatened under future climate. However, the uncertainties associated with translating predicted range declines into quantitative extinction risk need to be adequately communicated and extinction predictions should only be attempted with carefully conducted SDMs that openly communicate the limitations and uncertainty.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2755095823000050/type/journal_articlebiodiversity lossclimate changedistributionhabitat lossscenarios and forecasts |
| spellingShingle | Damaris Zurell Susanne A. Fritz Anna Rönnfeldt Manuel J. Steinbauer Predicting extinctions with species distribution models Cambridge Prisms: Extinction biodiversity loss climate change distribution habitat loss scenarios and forecasts |
| title | Predicting extinctions with species distribution models |
| title_full | Predicting extinctions with species distribution models |
| title_fullStr | Predicting extinctions with species distribution models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting extinctions with species distribution models |
| title_short | Predicting extinctions with species distribution models |
| title_sort | predicting extinctions with species distribution models |
| topic | biodiversity loss climate change distribution habitat loss scenarios and forecasts |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2755095823000050/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT damariszurell predictingextinctionswithspeciesdistributionmodels AT susanneafritz predictingextinctionswithspeciesdistributionmodels AT annaronnfeldt predictingextinctionswithspeciesdistributionmodels AT manueljsteinbauer predictingextinctionswithspeciesdistributionmodels |