Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?
Accurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farm projects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under th...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff7 |
| _version_ | 1827870942754242560 |
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| author | Annemarie Devis Nicole P M Van Lipzig Matthias Demuzere |
| author_facet | Annemarie Devis Nicole P M Van Lipzig Matthias Demuzere |
| author_sort | Annemarie Devis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farm projects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under the future climate. The present work examines future changes in wind power output over Europe using an ensemble of ESMs. The power output is calculated using the entire wind speed PDF and a non-constant power conversion coefficient. Based on this method, the ESM ensemble projects changes in near-future power outputs with a spatially varying magnitude between −12% and 8%. The most extreme changes occur over the Mediterranean region. For the first time, the sensitivity of these future change in power output to the type of wind turbine is also investigated. The analysis reveals that the projected wind power changes may vary in up to half of their magnitude, depending on the type of turbine and region of interest. As such, we recommend that wind industries fully account for projected near-future changes in wind power output by taking them into account as a well-defined loss/gain and uncertainty when estimating the yield of a future wind farm. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b4fc6b6a491c4fa584cacd9c6708b98b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:53Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b4fc6b6a491c4fa584cacd9c6708b98b2023-08-09T14:32:15ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606401210.1088/1748-9326/aabff7Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?Annemarie Devis0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7302-3014Nicole P M Van Lipzig1Matthias Demuzere2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3237-4077KU Leuven , Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; Storm , Katwilgweg 2, B-2050 Antwerpen, Belgium; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.KU Leuven , Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3000 Leuven, BelgiumKU Leuven , Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; Ghent University , Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, B-9000 Ghent, BelgiumAccurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farm projects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under the future climate. The present work examines future changes in wind power output over Europe using an ensemble of ESMs. The power output is calculated using the entire wind speed PDF and a non-constant power conversion coefficient. Based on this method, the ESM ensemble projects changes in near-future power outputs with a spatially varying magnitude between −12% and 8%. The most extreme changes occur over the Mediterranean region. For the first time, the sensitivity of these future change in power output to the type of wind turbine is also investigated. The analysis reveals that the projected wind power changes may vary in up to half of their magnitude, depending on the type of turbine and region of interest. As such, we recommend that wind industries fully account for projected near-future changes in wind power output by taking them into account as a well-defined loss/gain and uncertainty when estimating the yield of a future wind farm.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff7wind energyclimate changewind turbineEarth system modelsEuropewind resource assessment |
| spellingShingle | Annemarie Devis Nicole P M Van Lipzig Matthias Demuzere Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development? Environmental Research Letters wind energy climate change wind turbine Earth system models Europe wind resource assessment |
| title | Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development? |
| title_full | Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development? |
| title_fullStr | Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development? |
| title_short | Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development? |
| title_sort | should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development |
| topic | wind energy climate change wind turbine Earth system models Europe wind resource assessment |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff7 |
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