Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations
Abstract Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmosp...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 |
| _version_ | 1797275367665303552 |
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| author | Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen |
| author_facet | Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen |
| author_sort | Kunhui Ye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:12:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:12:20Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf73862024-03-05T18:08:05ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-01-017111610.1038/s41612-023-00562-5Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulationsKunhui Ye0Tim Woollings1Sarah N. Sparrow2Peter A. G. Watson3James A. Screen4Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of OxfordAtmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of OxfordOxford e-Research Centre, Engineering Science, University of OxfordSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of ExeterAbstract Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 |
| spellingShingle | Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
| title_full | Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
| title_fullStr | Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
| title_short | Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
| title_sort | response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected arctic sea ice loss in very large ensemble climate model simulations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 |
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