The use of system dynamics in modeling trends of social behavior by creating a model of public reaction to the election of political power representatives
The relevance of the research in the sphere of electoral processes dynamics is caused by the fact that all existent mathematical models of electoral behavior do not take into account completely the effect of informational impact of mass media and interpersonal communication results on the vote outco...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Jezik: | Russian |
| Izdano: |
Tomsk Polytechnic University
2019-05-01
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| Serija: | Известия Томского политехнического университета: Инжиниринг георесурсов |
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| Online dostop: | http://izvestiya-tpu.ru/archive/article/view/1377 |
| Izvleček: | The relevance of the research in the sphere of electoral processes dynamics is caused by the fact that all existent mathematical models of electoral behavior do not take into account completely the effect of informational impact of mass media and interpersonal communication results on the vote outcome. However empirical evidence indicates that informational campaigns can essentially change the vote ratio in government agencies and municipal corporations. Considering the fact that the election results often depend on percentage of the total votes, it's important to have the quantitative forecast of electoral processes dynamics depending on informational events. It also gives strategy optimization opportunities during the election campaign. The objectives: the description of the method predicting social behavior by developing a system dynamics model using the software package ITHINK. The model describes the process of public reaction to the election campaigns of political authorities. The research methods: mathematical modeling using the approaches and results of network game theory, graph theory, the generalized methods of diffusion and the replacement of innovation for dissemination of information flows, the impact of network agents in the Markov model. The results: The authors have developed the system-dynamic model which allows predicting social behavior on the election campaigns taking into account the impact of external factors and irritation. |
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| ISSN: | 2500-1019 2413-1830 |