Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values
What will be the aggregated cost of climate change in achieving the Paris Agreement, including mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts? Several studies estimated the aggregated cost but did not always consider the critical issues. Some do not address non-market values such as biodiversity and h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accdee |
| _version_ | 1797767687027294208 |
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| author | Takahiro Oda Jun’ya Takakura Longlong Tang Toshichika Iizumi Norihiro Itsubo Haruka Ohashi Masashi Kiguchi Naoko Kumano Kiyoshi Takahashi Masahiro Tanoue Makoto Tamura Qian Zhou Naota Hanasaki Tomoko Hasegawa Chan Park Yasuaki Hijioka Yukiko Hirabayashi Shinichiro Fujimori Yasushi Honda Tetsuya Matsui Hiroyuki Matsuda Hiromune Yokoki Taikan Oki |
| author_facet | Takahiro Oda Jun’ya Takakura Longlong Tang Toshichika Iizumi Norihiro Itsubo Haruka Ohashi Masashi Kiguchi Naoko Kumano Kiyoshi Takahashi Masahiro Tanoue Makoto Tamura Qian Zhou Naota Hanasaki Tomoko Hasegawa Chan Park Yasuaki Hijioka Yukiko Hirabayashi Shinichiro Fujimori Yasushi Honda Tetsuya Matsui Hiroyuki Matsuda Hiromune Yokoki Taikan Oki |
| author_sort | Takahiro Oda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | What will be the aggregated cost of climate change in achieving the Paris Agreement, including mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts? Several studies estimated the aggregated cost but did not always consider the critical issues. Some do not address non-market values such as biodiversity and human health, and most do not address differentiating discount rates. In this study, we estimate the aggregated cost of climate change using an integrated assessment model linked with detailed-process-based climate impact models and different discount rates for market and non-market values. The analysis reveals that a climate policy with minimal aggregated cost is sensitive to socioeconomic scenarios and the way discount rates are applied. The results elucidate that a lower discount rate to non-market value—that is, a higher estimate of future value—makes the aggregated cost of achieving the Paris Agreement economically reasonable. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:42:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b5619e009fc6406fa7df6704d1ac7080 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:42:28Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b5619e009fc6406fa7df6704d1ac70802023-08-01T07:52:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118808402610.1088/1748-9326/accdeeTotal economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market valuesTakahiro Oda0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9290-6907Jun’ya Takakura1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6184-8422Longlong Tang2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4921-2296Toshichika Iizumi3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0611-4637Norihiro Itsubo4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7312-7166Haruka Ohashi5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8265-6107Masashi Kiguchi6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8952-6855Naoko Kumano7Kiyoshi Takahashi8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0163-545XMasahiro Tanoue9https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1365-0187Makoto Tamura10Qian Zhou11https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8637-3312Naota Hanasaki12https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5092-7563Tomoko Hasegawa13https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789Chan Park14https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4994-6855Yasuaki Hijioka15https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2297-3981Yukiko Hirabayashi16https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5693-197XShinichiro Fujimori17https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796Yasushi Honda18https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2248-1629Tetsuya Matsui19https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8626-3199Hiroyuki Matsuda20https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1768-300XHiromune Yokoki21Taikan Oki22https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4067-4678Research and Development Center, Nippon Koei Co., Ltd , Tsukuba, JapanSocial Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, JapanInstitute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization , Tsukuba, JapanInstitute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization , Tsukuba, JapanFaculty of Environmental Studies, Tokyo City University , Yokohama, Japan; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University , Tokyo, JapanDepartment of Wildlife Biology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization , Tsukuba, JapanGraduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo , Tokyo, JapanGraduate School of Agriculture, Ehime University , Matsuyama, JapanSocial Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, JapanMeteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency , Tsukuba, JapanGlobal and Local Environment Co-creation Institute, Ibaraki University , Mito, JapanSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, JapanCollege of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University , Kusatsu, JapanDepartment of Landscape Architecture, College of Urban Science, University of Seoul , Seoul, Republic of KoreaCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, JapanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology , Tokyo, JapanSocial Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University , Kyoto, Japan; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba, JapanCenter for Biodiversity and Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization , Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba, JapanInstitute for Multidisciplinary Sciences, Yokohama National University , Yokohama, JapanGraduate School of Science and Engineering, Ibaraki University , Hitachi, JapanGraduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo , Tokyo, JapanWhat will be the aggregated cost of climate change in achieving the Paris Agreement, including mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts? Several studies estimated the aggregated cost but did not always consider the critical issues. Some do not address non-market values such as biodiversity and human health, and most do not address differentiating discount rates. In this study, we estimate the aggregated cost of climate change using an integrated assessment model linked with detailed-process-based climate impact models and different discount rates for market and non-market values. The analysis reveals that a climate policy with minimal aggregated cost is sensitive to socioeconomic scenarios and the way discount rates are applied. The results elucidate that a lower discount rate to non-market value—that is, a higher estimate of future value—makes the aggregated cost of achieving the Paris Agreement economically reasonable.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accdeeclimate changediscount rateclimate impactsmitigation cost |
| spellingShingle | Takahiro Oda Jun’ya Takakura Longlong Tang Toshichika Iizumi Norihiro Itsubo Haruka Ohashi Masashi Kiguchi Naoko Kumano Kiyoshi Takahashi Masahiro Tanoue Makoto Tamura Qian Zhou Naota Hanasaki Tomoko Hasegawa Chan Park Yasuaki Hijioka Yukiko Hirabayashi Shinichiro Fujimori Yasushi Honda Tetsuya Matsui Hiroyuki Matsuda Hiromune Yokoki Taikan Oki Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values Environmental Research Letters climate change discount rate climate impacts mitigation cost |
| title | Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values |
| title_full | Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values |
| title_fullStr | Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values |
| title_full_unstemmed | Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values |
| title_short | Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values |
| title_sort | total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non market values |
| topic | climate change discount rate climate impacts mitigation cost |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accdee |
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