Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia
High resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims...
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3158 |
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| author | Mou Leong Tan Ju Liang Matthew Hawcroft James M. Haywood Fei Zhang Ruslan Rainis Wan Ruslan Ismail |
| author_facet | Mou Leong Tan Ju Liang Matthew Hawcroft James M. Haywood Fei Zhang Ruslan Rainis Wan Ruslan Ismail |
| author_sort | Mou Leong Tan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | High resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims to evaluate projections of hydro-climatic change of the Johor River Basin (JRB) in southern Peninsular Malaysia between 1985 to 2015 and 2021 to 2050, focusing on uncertainty quantification of hydrological outputs from low (>1°), medium (0.5° to 1°) and high (≤0.5°) horizontal resolution models. These projections show future increases in annual precipitation of 0.4 to 3.1%, minimum and maximum temperature increases of 0.8 to 0.9 °C and 0.9 to 1.1 °C, respectively. These projected climate changes lead to increases in annual mean streamflow of 0.9% to 7.0% and surface runoff of 7.0% to 20.6% in the JRB. These annual mean changes are consistent with those during the wet period (November to December), e.g., streamflow increases of 4.9% to 10.8% and surface runoff of 28.8 to 39.9% in December. Disagreement in the direction of change is found during the dry seasons, (February to March and May to September), where high resolution models project a decrease in future monthly precipitation and streamflow, whilst increases are projected by the medium- and low-resolution models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:58:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b5823dda335247d88492cfcbe4f917ce |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:58:28Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-b5823dda335247d88492cfcbe4f917ce2023-11-23T01:59:14ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412021-11-011322315810.3390/w13223158Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, MalaysiaMou Leong Tan0Ju Liang1Matthew Hawcroft2James M. Haywood3Fei Zhang4Ruslan Rainis5Wan Ruslan Ismail6GeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang 11800, MalaysiaCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UKCentre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, AustraliaCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UKKey Laboratory of Wisdom City and Environmental Modeling of Higher Education Institute, College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, ChinaGeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang 11800, MalaysiaGeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang 11800, MalaysiaHigh resolution models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), part of CMIP6, have the capacity to allow a better representation of the climate system in tropical regions, but how different model resolutions affect hydrological outputs remains unclear. This research aims to evaluate projections of hydro-climatic change of the Johor River Basin (JRB) in southern Peninsular Malaysia between 1985 to 2015 and 2021 to 2050, focusing on uncertainty quantification of hydrological outputs from low (>1°), medium (0.5° to 1°) and high (≤0.5°) horizontal resolution models. These projections show future increases in annual precipitation of 0.4 to 3.1%, minimum and maximum temperature increases of 0.8 to 0.9 °C and 0.9 to 1.1 °C, respectively. These projected climate changes lead to increases in annual mean streamflow of 0.9% to 7.0% and surface runoff of 7.0% to 20.6% in the JRB. These annual mean changes are consistent with those during the wet period (November to December), e.g., streamflow increases of 4.9% to 10.8% and surface runoff of 28.8 to 39.9% in December. Disagreement in the direction of change is found during the dry seasons, (February to March and May to September), where high resolution models project a decrease in future monthly precipitation and streamflow, whilst increases are projected by the medium- and low-resolution models.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3158climate changeCMIP6HighResMIPSWATwater resourceresolution |
| spellingShingle | Mou Leong Tan Ju Liang Matthew Hawcroft James M. Haywood Fei Zhang Ruslan Rainis Wan Ruslan Ismail Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia Water climate change CMIP6 HighResMIP SWAT water resource resolution |
| title | Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia |
| title_full | Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia |
| title_short | Resolution Dependence of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection: A Case-Study for the Johor River Basin, Malaysia |
| title_sort | resolution dependence of regional hydro climatic projection a case study for the johor river basin malaysia |
| topic | climate change CMIP6 HighResMIP SWAT water resource resolution |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/22/3158 |
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