Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation
The start and end of the urban phase of the Indus civilization (IC; c. 2500 to 1900 BC) are often linked with climate change, specifically regarding trends in the intensity of summer and winter precipitation and its effect on the productivity of local food economies. The Indus Village is a modular a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Quaternary |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-550X/5/2/25 |
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| author | Andreas Angourakis Jennifer Bates Jean-Philippe Baudouin Alena Giesche Joanna R. Walker M. Cemre Ustunkaya Nathan Wright Ravindra Nath Singh Cameron A. Petrie |
| author_facet | Andreas Angourakis Jennifer Bates Jean-Philippe Baudouin Alena Giesche Joanna R. Walker M. Cemre Ustunkaya Nathan Wright Ravindra Nath Singh Cameron A. Petrie |
| author_sort | Andreas Angourakis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The start and end of the urban phase of the Indus civilization (IC; c. 2500 to 1900 BC) are often linked with climate change, specifically regarding trends in the intensity of summer and winter precipitation and its effect on the productivity of local food economies. The Indus Village is a modular agent-based model designed as a heuristic “sandbox” to investigate how IC farmers could cope with diverse and changing environments and how climate change could impact the local and regional food production levels required for maintaining urban centers. The complete model includes dedicated submodels about weather, topography, soil properties, crop dynamics, food storage and exchange, nutrition, demography, and farming decision-making. In this paper, however, we focus on presenting the parts required for generating crop dynamics, including the submodels involved (weather, soil water, land, and crop models) and how they are combined progressively to form two integrated models (land water and land crop models). Furthermore, we describe and discuss the results of six simulation experiments, which highlight the roles of seasonality, topography, and crop diversity in understanding the potential impact of environmental variability, including climate change, in IC food economies. We conclude by discussing a broader consideration of risk and risk mitigation strategies in ancient agriculture and potential implications to the sustainability of the IC urban centres. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:38:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b587ceb6d1bb48e7af143fd58ae534b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-550X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:38:59Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Quaternary |
| spelling | doaj.art-b587ceb6d1bb48e7af143fd58ae534b92023-11-23T18:43:31ZengMDPI AGQuaternary2571-550X2022-05-01522510.3390/quat5020025Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus CivilisationAndreas Angourakis0Jennifer Bates1Jean-Philippe Baudouin2Alena Giesche3Joanna R. Walker4M. Cemre Ustunkaya5Nathan Wright6Ravindra Nath Singh7Cameron A. Petrie8Institut für Archäologische Wissenschaften, Ruhr Universität Bochum, Am Bergbaumuseum 31, 44791 Bochum, GermanyDepartment of Archaeology and Art History, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, KoreaPalaeoclimate Dynamics and Variability, Geo- und Umweltforschungszentrum (GUZ), Universität Tübingen, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz, 72074 Tübingen, GermanyDepartment of Geology, Colby College, Mayflower Hill Drive, Waterville, ME 04901, USADepartment of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, UKMcDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, UKDepartment of Archaeology, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2350, AustraliaDepartment of AIHC and Archaeology, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, IndiaMcDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, UKThe start and end of the urban phase of the Indus civilization (IC; c. 2500 to 1900 BC) are often linked with climate change, specifically regarding trends in the intensity of summer and winter precipitation and its effect on the productivity of local food economies. The Indus Village is a modular agent-based model designed as a heuristic “sandbox” to investigate how IC farmers could cope with diverse and changing environments and how climate change could impact the local and regional food production levels required for maintaining urban centers. The complete model includes dedicated submodels about weather, topography, soil properties, crop dynamics, food storage and exchange, nutrition, demography, and farming decision-making. In this paper, however, we focus on presenting the parts required for generating crop dynamics, including the submodels involved (weather, soil water, land, and crop models) and how they are combined progressively to form two integrated models (land water and land crop models). Furthermore, we describe and discuss the results of six simulation experiments, which highlight the roles of seasonality, topography, and crop diversity in understanding the potential impact of environmental variability, including climate change, in IC food economies. We conclude by discussing a broader consideration of risk and risk mitigation strategies in ancient agriculture and potential implications to the sustainability of the IC urban centres.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-550X/5/2/25agent-based modelingIndus civilizationclimate changebronze ageagriculture |
| spellingShingle | Andreas Angourakis Jennifer Bates Jean-Philippe Baudouin Alena Giesche Joanna R. Walker M. Cemre Ustunkaya Nathan Wright Ravindra Nath Singh Cameron A. Petrie Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation Quaternary agent-based modeling Indus civilization climate change bronze age agriculture |
| title | Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation |
| title_full | Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation |
| title_fullStr | Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation |
| title_short | Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation |
| title_sort | weather land and crops in the indus village model a simulation framework for crop dynamics under environmental variability and climate change in the indus civilisation |
| topic | agent-based modeling Indus civilization climate change bronze age agriculture |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-550X/5/2/25 |
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