Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?
Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Hydrology Research |
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| Online Access: | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/53/1/29 |
| _version_ | 1819278628222926848 |
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| author | Liu Yang Jiaxi Tian Yuanhai Fu Bin Zhu Xu He Mingkun Gao Michael Tetteh Odamtten Rui Kong Zengxin Zhang |
| author_facet | Liu Yang Jiaxi Tian Yuanhai Fu Bin Zhu Xu He Mingkun Gao Michael Tetteh Odamtten Rui Kong Zengxin Zhang |
| author_sort | Liu Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humid over the next few decades. In this paper, eight CMIP6 models were employed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes under five principal Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (from 2015 to 2099) to project the future warming and humidification in Northwest China using the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) method. The results revealed that (1) the simulated temperature and precipitation of eight CMIP6 models were consistent with that of observed data during 1961–2014, which showed an increase of approximately 28.2 mm, while simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 9.4 mm. The annual precipitation gradually decreased from Eastern Inner Mongolia and the Southern Northwest Mongolia region (>700 mm) to the Central Northwest Mongolia region (<100 mm) from 1961 to 2014; (2) the MME significantly overestimated the temperature and slightly underestimated the precipitation in Northwest Mongolia. The temperature difference between the simulated and observed data was approximately 0.4 °C. The observed data showed an increase of approximately 0.9 °C from 1961 to 2014, whereas the simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 0.7 °C; (3) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the percentage of precipitation anomalies at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C were 166.64, 190.58, 226.44, and 274.56%, respectively; thus, alleviating the drought situation while facilitating the warm-dry to warm-wet climate transition; (4) the water balance between rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulting from increased precipitation suggested that not all sites will be wet in the future. There was still a drying trend in some areas, where drought was more severe under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario. HIGHLIGHTS
The bias-corrected CMIP6 models sufficiently captured the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in China from 1961 to 2014, and the transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China can be simulated by MME.;
Due to the uncertainty of the model results, the future climate change in Northwest China is quite uncertain and needs further study.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T00:15:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b5c79d08bea34d4fa8bbe1a58fad68e6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1998-9563 2224-7955 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T00:15:02Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
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| series | Hydrology Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-b5c79d08bea34d4fa8bbe1a58fad68e62022-12-21T17:24:47ZengIWA PublishingHydrology Research1998-95632224-79552022-01-01531295010.2166/nh.2021.069069Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?Liu Yang0Jiaxi Tian1Yuanhai Fu2Bin Zhu3Xu He4Mingkun Gao5Michael Tetteh Odamtten6Rui Kong7Zengxin Zhang8 Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Nanjing 210037, China Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humid over the next few decades. In this paper, eight CMIP6 models were employed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes under five principal Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (from 2015 to 2099) to project the future warming and humidification in Northwest China using the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) method. The results revealed that (1) the simulated temperature and precipitation of eight CMIP6 models were consistent with that of observed data during 1961–2014, which showed an increase of approximately 28.2 mm, while simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 9.4 mm. The annual precipitation gradually decreased from Eastern Inner Mongolia and the Southern Northwest Mongolia region (>700 mm) to the Central Northwest Mongolia region (<100 mm) from 1961 to 2014; (2) the MME significantly overestimated the temperature and slightly underestimated the precipitation in Northwest Mongolia. The temperature difference between the simulated and observed data was approximately 0.4 °C. The observed data showed an increase of approximately 0.9 °C from 1961 to 2014, whereas the simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 0.7 °C; (3) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the percentage of precipitation anomalies at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C were 166.64, 190.58, 226.44, and 274.56%, respectively; thus, alleviating the drought situation while facilitating the warm-dry to warm-wet climate transition; (4) the water balance between rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulting from increased precipitation suggested that not all sites will be wet in the future. There was still a drying trend in some areas, where drought was more severe under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario. HIGHLIGHTS The bias-corrected CMIP6 models sufficiently captured the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in China from 1961 to 2014, and the transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China can be simulated by MME.; Due to the uncertainty of the model results, the future climate change in Northwest China is quite uncertain and needs further study.;http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/53/1/29climate transitioncmip6northwest chinaspeissps |
| spellingShingle | Liu Yang Jiaxi Tian Yuanhai Fu Bin Zhu Xu He Mingkun Gao Michael Tetteh Odamtten Rui Kong Zengxin Zhang Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models? Hydrology Research climate transition cmip6 northwest china spei ssps |
| title | Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models? |
| title_full | Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models? |
| title_fullStr | Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models? |
| title_short | Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models? |
| title_sort | will the arid and semi arid regions of northwest china become warmer and wetter based on cmip6 models |
| topic | climate transition cmip6 northwest china spei ssps |
| url | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/53/1/29 |
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