Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA
We use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining e...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Resilience Alliance
2017-03-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Society |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss1/art24/ |
| _version_ | 1818580353249443840 |
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| author | Ana M. G. Barros Alan A. Ager Michelle A. Day Haiganoush K. Preisler Thomas A. Spies Eric White Robert J. Pabst Keith A. Olsen Emily Platt John D. Bailey John P. Bolte |
| author_facet | Ana M. G. Barros Alan A. Ager Michelle A. Day Haiganoush K. Preisler Thomas A. Spies Eric White Robert J. Pabst Keith A. Olsen Emily Platt John D. Bailey John P. Bolte |
| author_sort | Ana M. G. Barros |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining existing treatment strategies in terms of spatial distribution and treatment type. We modeled forest succession using a state-and-transition approach and simulated wildfires based on the contemporary fire regime of the region. We tested for the presence of temporal trends and overall differences in burned area among four fuel management scenarios. Results showed that when the forest was managed to reduce fuels it burned less: over the course of 50 years there was up to a 40% reduction in area burned. However, simulation outputs did not reveal the expected temporal trend, i.e., area burned did not decrease progressively with time, nor did the absence of management lead to its increase. These results can be explained as the consequence of an existing wildfire deficit and vegetation succession paths that led to closed canopy, and heavy fuels forest types that are unlikely to burn under average fire weather. Fire (and management) remained relatively rare disturbances and, given our assumptions, were unable to alter long-term vegetation patterns and consequently unable to alter long-term wildfire dynamics. Doubling and tripling current management targets were effective in the near term but not sustainable through time because of a scarcity of stands eligible to treat according to the modeled management constraints. These results provide new insights into the long-term dynamics between fuel management programs and wildfire and demonstrate that treatment prioritization strategies have limited effect on fire activity if they are too narrowly focused on particular forest conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T07:16:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b5d985877c64483b8544ce9ace35d345 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1708-3087 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T07:16:15Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Resilience Alliance |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Society |
| spelling | doaj.art-b5d985877c64483b8544ce9ace35d3452022-12-21T22:39:46ZengResilience AllianceEcology and Society1708-30872017-03-012212410.5751/ES-08917-2201248917Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USAAna M. G. Barros0Alan A. Ager1Michelle A. Day2Haiganoush K. Preisler3Thomas A. Spies4Eric White5Robert J. Pabst6Keith A. Olsen7Emily Platt8John D. Bailey9John P. Bolte10Oregon State University, College of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Resources & ManagementUSDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences LaboratoryOregon State University, College of Forestry, Department of Forest Ecosystems & SocietyUSDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research StationUSDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research StationUSDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research StationOregon State University, College of Forestry, Department of Forest Ecosystems & SocietyOregon State University, College of Forestry, Department of Forest Ecosystems & SocietyUnited States Forest Service, Region 6Oregon State University, College of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Resources & ManagementOregon State University, College of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biological & Ecological EngineeringWe use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining existing treatment strategies in terms of spatial distribution and treatment type. We modeled forest succession using a state-and-transition approach and simulated wildfires based on the contemporary fire regime of the region. We tested for the presence of temporal trends and overall differences in burned area among four fuel management scenarios. Results showed that when the forest was managed to reduce fuels it burned less: over the course of 50 years there was up to a 40% reduction in area burned. However, simulation outputs did not reveal the expected temporal trend, i.e., area burned did not decrease progressively with time, nor did the absence of management lead to its increase. These results can be explained as the consequence of an existing wildfire deficit and vegetation succession paths that led to closed canopy, and heavy fuels forest types that are unlikely to burn under average fire weather. Fire (and management) remained relatively rare disturbances and, given our assumptions, were unable to alter long-term vegetation patterns and consequently unable to alter long-term wildfire dynamics. Doubling and tripling current management targets were effective in the near term but not sustainable through time because of a scarcity of stands eligible to treat according to the modeled management constraints. These results provide new insights into the long-term dynamics between fuel management programs and wildfire and demonstrate that treatment prioritization strategies have limited effect on fire activity if they are too narrowly focused on particular forest conditions.http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss1/art24/agent-based modelDeschutes National ForestFlammapminimum travel timestate-and-transition model |
| spellingShingle | Ana M. G. Barros Alan A. Ager Michelle A. Day Haiganoush K. Preisler Thomas A. Spies Eric White Robert J. Pabst Keith A. Olsen Emily Platt John D. Bailey John P. Bolte Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA Ecology and Society agent-based model Deschutes National Forest Flammap minimum travel time state-and-transition model |
| title | Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire forest management and forest succession in central oregon usa |
| topic | agent-based model Deschutes National Forest Flammap minimum travel time state-and-transition model |
| url | http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss1/art24/ |
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