The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model.
BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2015-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4314063?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1811235549844865024 |
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| author | Suzette M Matthijsse Joost van Rosmalen Jan A C Hontelez Roel Bakker Inge M C M de Kok Marjolein van Ballegooijen Sake J de Vlas |
| author_facet | Suzette M Matthijsse Joost van Rosmalen Jan A C Hontelez Roel Bakker Inge M C M de Kok Marjolein van Ballegooijen Sake J de Vlas |
| author_sort | Suzette M Matthijsse |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections. METHODS: We used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence. RESULTS: A model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also, it is necessary to assume a high degree of individual variation in the duration of infection and acquired immunity. According to the model estimates, on average 20% of women are immune for HPV-16 and 15% for HPV-18. After an HPV-16 infection, 50% are immune for less than 1 year, whereas 20% exceed 30 years. For HPV-18, up to 12% of the individuals are immune for less than 1 year, and about 50% over 30 years. Almost half of all women will never acquire HPV-16 or HPV-18. CONCLUSIONS: Acquired immunity likely plays a major role in HPV epidemiology, but its duration shows substantial variation. Combined with the lifetime risk, this explains to a large extent why many women will never develop cervical cancer. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:54:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b5e0d27d910b4d139f232f37e78a5e36 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:54:04Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-b5e0d27d910b4d139f232f37e78a5e362022-12-22T03:34:04ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032015-01-01102e011661810.1371/journal.pone.0116618The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model.Suzette M MatthijsseJoost van RosmalenJan A C HontelezRoel BakkerInge M C M de KokMarjolein van BallegooijenSake J de VlasBACKGROUND: Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections. METHODS: We used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence. RESULTS: A model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also, it is necessary to assume a high degree of individual variation in the duration of infection and acquired immunity. According to the model estimates, on average 20% of women are immune for HPV-16 and 15% for HPV-18. After an HPV-16 infection, 50% are immune for less than 1 year, whereas 20% exceed 30 years. For HPV-18, up to 12% of the individuals are immune for less than 1 year, and about 50% over 30 years. Almost half of all women will never acquire HPV-16 or HPV-18. CONCLUSIONS: Acquired immunity likely plays a major role in HPV epidemiology, but its duration shows substantial variation. Combined with the lifetime risk, this explains to a large extent why many women will never develop cervical cancer.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4314063?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Suzette M Matthijsse Joost van Rosmalen Jan A C Hontelez Roel Bakker Inge M C M de Kok Marjolein van Ballegooijen Sake J de Vlas The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. PLoS ONE |
| title | The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. |
| title_full | The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. |
| title_fullStr | The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. |
| title_short | The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. |
| title_sort | role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus hpv explorations with a microsimulation model |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4314063?pdf=render |
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