Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most dangerous hazards that threaten U.S. coastlines. They can be particularly damaging when they occur in densely populated areas, such as the U.S. Northeast. Here, we investigate seasonal-scale variations in TC genesis and subsequent first landfall l...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31545-4 |
| _version_ | 1797850052804214784 |
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| author | Mackenzie M. Weaver Andra J. Garner |
| author_facet | Mackenzie M. Weaver Andra J. Garner |
| author_sort | Mackenzie M. Weaver |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most dangerous hazards that threaten U.S. coastlines. They can be particularly damaging when they occur in densely populated areas, such as the U.S. Northeast. Here, we investigate seasonal-scale variations in TC genesis and subsequent first landfall locations of > 37,000 synthetic TCs that impact the U.S. Northeast from the pre-industrial era (prior to 1800) through a very high emissions future (RCP8.5; 2080–2100). TC genesis in the Main Development Region decreases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest decreases in the proportion of genesis (up to 80.49%) occurring in the early and late seasons. Conversely, TC genesis in a region near the U.S. southeast coast increases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest increases in the proportion of genesis (up to 286.45%) also occurring in the early and late seasons. Impacts of changing TC genesis locations are highlighted by variations in where TCs make their first landfall over the same time periods, with an increase in landfalls along the mid-Atlantic seaboard from Delaware to North Carolina during all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T18:54:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b639564fcd554cadade293995526284b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T18:54:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-b639564fcd554cadade293995526284b2023-04-09T11:17:14ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-04-0113111410.1038/s41598-023-31545-4Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climateMackenzie M. Weaver0Andra J. Garner1Department of Environmental Science, Rowan UniversityDepartment of Environmental Science, Rowan UniversityAbstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most dangerous hazards that threaten U.S. coastlines. They can be particularly damaging when they occur in densely populated areas, such as the U.S. Northeast. Here, we investigate seasonal-scale variations in TC genesis and subsequent first landfall locations of > 37,000 synthetic TCs that impact the U.S. Northeast from the pre-industrial era (prior to 1800) through a very high emissions future (RCP8.5; 2080–2100). TC genesis in the Main Development Region decreases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest decreases in the proportion of genesis (up to 80.49%) occurring in the early and late seasons. Conversely, TC genesis in a region near the U.S. southeast coast increases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest increases in the proportion of genesis (up to 286.45%) also occurring in the early and late seasons. Impacts of changing TC genesis locations are highlighted by variations in where TCs make their first landfall over the same time periods, with an increase in landfalls along the mid-Atlantic seaboard from Delaware to North Carolina during all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31545-4 |
| spellingShingle | Mackenzie M. Weaver Andra J. Garner Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate Scientific Reports |
| title | Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate |
| title_full | Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate |
| title_fullStr | Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate |
| title_short | Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate |
| title_sort | varying genesis and landfall locations for north atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31545-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mackenziemweaver varyinggenesisandlandfalllocationsfornorthatlantictropicalcyclonesinawarmerclimate AT andrajgarner varyinggenesisandlandfalllocationsfornorthatlantictropicalcyclonesinawarmerclimate |