Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin
Study region: Urumqi River headwater region in eastern Tianshan, central Asia. Study focus: Climate change is anticipated to accelerate glacier shrinkage and alter hydrological conditions, causing variations in the runoff patterns in the catchment and significantly threatening the regional water res...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002392 |
| _version_ | 1827583784918188032 |
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| author | Shuangshuang Liu Feiteng Wang Xuanxuan Wang Hongyu Luo Lin Wang Ping Zhou Chunhai Xu |
| author_facet | Shuangshuang Liu Feiteng Wang Xuanxuan Wang Hongyu Luo Lin Wang Ping Zhou Chunhai Xu |
| author_sort | Shuangshuang Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Urumqi River headwater region in eastern Tianshan, central Asia. Study focus: Climate change is anticipated to accelerate glacier shrinkage and alter hydrological conditions, causing variations in the runoff patterns in the catchment and significantly threatening the regional water resources. However, few models exhibit adequate performance to simulate both surface alterations and glacier/snow runoff. Therefore, this study combined the glacier module with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the effect of climate change on the streamflow in the Urumqi River headwater region. The Urumqi River Headwater region is representative because of its long data series, viatal location, and local water availability, and it contains the longest-observed reference glacier (Urumqi Glacier No.1) in China, which spans the period from 1958 to the present. New hydrological insights for the region: The SWAT model performed satisfactorily for both calibration (1983–2005) and validation (2006–2016) periods with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.80. The water balance analysis suggested that the snow/glacier melt contributed approximately 25% to the water yield. At the end of the 21st century, the temperature would increase by 2.4–3.8 °C while the precipitation would decrease by 1–2% under two future scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585). Thus, a 34–36% reduction in streamflow was projected due to above climate change impacts. This information would contribute to the development of adaptation strategies for sustainable water resource management. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:12:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b6e7683eaf634531b693c9471c0bd84c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:12:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-b6e7683eaf634531b693c9471c0bd84c2023-12-15T07:24:11ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-12-0150101552Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basinShuangshuang Liu0Feiteng Wang1Xuanxuan Wang2Hongyu Luo3Lin Wang4Ping Zhou5Chunhai Xu6State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; Corresponding author.School of Hydraulic Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions， Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaStudy region: Urumqi River headwater region in eastern Tianshan, central Asia. Study focus: Climate change is anticipated to accelerate glacier shrinkage and alter hydrological conditions, causing variations in the runoff patterns in the catchment and significantly threatening the regional water resources. However, few models exhibit adequate performance to simulate both surface alterations and glacier/snow runoff. Therefore, this study combined the glacier module with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the effect of climate change on the streamflow in the Urumqi River headwater region. The Urumqi River Headwater region is representative because of its long data series, viatal location, and local water availability, and it contains the longest-observed reference glacier (Urumqi Glacier No.1) in China, which spans the period from 1958 to the present. New hydrological insights for the region: The SWAT model performed satisfactorily for both calibration (1983–2005) and validation (2006–2016) periods with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.80. The water balance analysis suggested that the snow/glacier melt contributed approximately 25% to the water yield. At the end of the 21st century, the temperature would increase by 2.4–3.8 °C while the precipitation would decrease by 1–2% under two future scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585). Thus, a 34–36% reduction in streamflow was projected due to above climate change impacts. This information would contribute to the development of adaptation strategies for sustainable water resource management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002392Climate changeSWAT modelStreamflowWater balanceUrumqi RiverTianshan |
| spellingShingle | Shuangshuang Liu Feiteng Wang Xuanxuan Wang Hongyu Luo Lin Wang Ping Zhou Chunhai Xu Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change SWAT model Streamflow Water balance Urumqi River Tianshan |
| title | Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin |
| title_full | Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin |
| title_short | Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier/snow-fed northern Tianshan basin |
| title_sort | modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow in glacier snow fed northern tianshan basin |
| topic | Climate change SWAT model Streamflow Water balance Urumqi River Tianshan |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002392 |
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