Modelling non-stationary flood frequency in England and Wales using physical covariates
Non-stationary methods of flood frequency analysis are widespread in research but rarely implemented by practitioners. One reason may be that research papers on non-stationary statistical models tend to focus on model fitting rather than extracting the sort of results needed by designers and decisio...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IWA Publishing
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/55/2/205 |
| Summary: | Non-stationary methods of flood frequency analysis are widespread in research but rarely implemented by practitioners. One reason may be that research papers on non-stationary statistical models tend to focus on model fitting rather than extracting the sort of results needed by designers and decision makers. It can be difficult to extract useful results from non-stationary models that include stochastic covariates for which the value in any future year is unknown. We explore the motivation for including such covariates, whether on their own or in addition to a covariate based on time. We set out a method for expressing the results of non-stationary models as an integrated flow estimate, which removes the dependence on the covariates. This can be defined either for a particular year or over a longer period of time. The methods are illustrated by application to a set of 375 river gauges across England and Wales. We find annual rainfall to be a useful covariate at many gauges, sometimes in conjunction with a time-based covariate. For estimating flood frequency in future conditions, we advocate exploring hybrid approaches that combine the best attributes of non-stationary statistical models and simulation models that can represent changes in climate and river catchments.
HIGHLIGHTS
We explore why and how to include physical variables as covariates in statistical models of flood frequency.;
We develop and illustrate methods for extracting flow estimates from such models so that practitioners can obtain useful results.;
Practitioners now have tools and guidance to apply non-stationary methods for flood management in England.; |
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| ISSN: | 1998-9563 2224-7955 |