Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data
The relationship between the unemployment rate and the evolution of human capital is different depending on whether one subscribes to a neoclassical logic or to a hysteresis theory. This paper proposes that when the unemployment rate reaches a high level for some time, the persistence phenomenon, or...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2022-06-01
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| Series: | National Accounting Review |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/NAR.2022008?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1818473952981286912 |
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| author | Jean-Marie Le Page |
| author_facet | Jean-Marie Le Page |
| author_sort | Jean-Marie Le Page |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The relationship between the unemployment rate and the evolution of human capital is different depending on whether one subscribes to a neoclassical logic or to a hysteresis theory. This paper proposes that when the unemployment rate reaches a high level for some time, the persistence phenomenon, or hysteresis, weakens the attractive forces of the natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate can then reach a different equilibrium value. However, according to Blanchard and Summers, this equilibrium is unstable and fragile. In the second part of this paper, we propose an indicator to measure the intensity of the attraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment. The empirical values of this index show the weak attraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment in economies with high levels of long-term unemployment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T04:29:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b7342938c553400f9fd33d6d44a68b61 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2689-3010 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T04:29:53Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | National Accounting Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-b7342938c553400f9fd33d6d44a68b612022-12-22T02:12:07ZengAIMS PressNational Accounting Review2689-30102022-06-014213514610.3934/NAR.2022008Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic dataJean-Marie Le Page0Panthéon-Assas Paris Ⅱ University, Paris, FranceThe relationship between the unemployment rate and the evolution of human capital is different depending on whether one subscribes to a neoclassical logic or to a hysteresis theory. This paper proposes that when the unemployment rate reaches a high level for some time, the persistence phenomenon, or hysteresis, weakens the attractive forces of the natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate can then reach a different equilibrium value. However, according to Blanchard and Summers, this equilibrium is unstable and fragile. In the second part of this paper, we propose an indicator to measure the intensity of the attraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment. The empirical values of this index show the weak attraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment in economies with high levels of long-term unemployment.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/NAR.2022008?viewType=HTMLnatural rate of unemploymenthysteresisfragile equilibriumemployment dynamicsattraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment |
| spellingShingle | Jean-Marie Le Page Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data National Accounting Review natural rate of unemployment hysteresis fragile equilibrium employment dynamics attraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment |
| title | Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data |
| title_full | Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data |
| title_fullStr | Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data |
| title_short | Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data |
| title_sort | structural rate of unemployment hysteresis human capital and macroeconomic data |
| topic | natural rate of unemployment hysteresis fragile equilibrium employment dynamics attraction forces of the natural rate of unemployment |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/NAR.2022008?viewType=HTML |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeanmarielepage structuralrateofunemploymenthysteresishumancapitalandmacroeconomicdata |