Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea fo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.830119/full |
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| author | Ning Shi Ning Shi Niyati Naudiyal Jinniu Wang Jinniu Wang Narayan Prasad Gaire Narayan Prasad Gaire Yan Wu Yanqiang Wei Jiali He Chunya Wang |
| author_facet | Ning Shi Ning Shi Niyati Naudiyal Jinniu Wang Jinniu Wang Narayan Prasad Gaire Narayan Prasad Gaire Yan Wu Yanqiang Wei Jiali He Chunya Wang |
| author_sort | Ning Shi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T23:01:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b73cd675b6434b86b9f78bdd58da9102 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T23:01:55Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-b73cd675b6434b86b9f78bdd58da91022022-12-21T16:35:06ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2022-01-011210.3389/fpls.2021.830119830119Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet PlateauNing Shi0Ning Shi1Niyati Naudiyal2Jinniu Wang3Jinniu Wang4Narayan Prasad Gaire5Narayan Prasad Gaire6Yan Wu7Yanqiang Wei8Jiali He9Chunya Wang10Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaChengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaChengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaMangkang Ecological Station, Tibet Ecological Safety Monitor Network, Chengdu, ChinaKey Lab of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Science, Patan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, NepalChengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, ChinaChengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaChengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, ChinaMeconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.830119/fullMeconopsis puniceaMaxEnt modelinghabitat suitabilityecosystem serviceclimate changeQinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| spellingShingle | Ning Shi Ning Shi Niyati Naudiyal Jinniu Wang Jinniu Wang Narayan Prasad Gaire Narayan Prasad Gaire Yan Wu Yanqiang Wei Jiali He Chunya Wang Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Frontiers in Plant Science Meconopsis punicea MaxEnt modeling habitat suitability ecosystem service climate change Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| title | Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| title_full | Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| title_short | Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| title_sort | assessing the impact of climate change on potential distribution of meconopsis punicea and its influence on ecosystem services supply in the southeastern margin of qinghai tibet plateau |
| topic | Meconopsis punicea MaxEnt modeling habitat suitability ecosystem service climate change Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.830119/full |
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