Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia
The objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Kessie watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought In...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Geocarto International |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2247377 |
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| author | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn Asmare Belay Nigussie Anteneh Yayeh Adamu Gerawork Feleke Mulu |
| author_facet | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn Asmare Belay Nigussie Anteneh Yayeh Adamu Gerawork Feleke Mulu |
| author_sort | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Kessie watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), respectively. The study used baseline data (1985–2014) and future (2041–2100) downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP-6) based on the three Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow for two future time horizons 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Based on the yearly time scale, our results indicate that droughts of a high magnitude and rising frequency would affect most of the research area. These droughts will be either meteorological (RDI), agricultural (aSPI), or hydrological (SDI). Short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts are also anticipated to occur more frequently. The projected increases in frequency and trend of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this area are greater due to the anticipated drop in annual rainfall and the larger increase in mean annual temperature in the middle of Kessie. Furthermore, compared to hydrological and agricultural droughts, meteorological drought is less vulnerable to climate change; but, as the accumulation period lengthens, a stronger association develops between hydrological and agricultural droughts. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the study area. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:47:20Z |
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| id | doaj.art-b755f01eeea146d9bef616d1415dba69 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1010-6049 1752-0762 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:47:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geocarto International |
| spelling | doaj.art-b755f01eeea146d9bef616d1415dba692023-09-19T09:13:18ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeocarto International1010-60491752-07622023-12-0138110.1080/10106049.2023.22473772247377Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, EthiopiaAsnake Enawgaw Amognehegn0Asmare Belay Nigussie1Anteneh Yayeh Adamu2Gerawork Feleke Mulu3School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering & Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversitySchool of Civil and Water Resource Engineering & Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversitySchool of Civil and Water Resource Engineering & Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversitySchool of Civil and Water Resource Engineering & Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversityThe objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Kessie watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), respectively. The study used baseline data (1985–2014) and future (2041–2100) downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP-6) based on the three Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow for two future time horizons 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Based on the yearly time scale, our results indicate that droughts of a high magnitude and rising frequency would affect most of the research area. These droughts will be either meteorological (RDI), agricultural (aSPI), or hydrological (SDI). Short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts are also anticipated to occur more frequently. The projected increases in frequency and trend of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this area are greater due to the anticipated drop in annual rainfall and the larger increase in mean annual temperature in the middle of Kessie. Furthermore, compared to hydrological and agricultural droughts, meteorological drought is less vulnerable to climate change; but, as the accumulation period lengthens, a stronger association develops between hydrological and agricultural droughts. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the study area.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2247377climate changecmip6drought indicesswatkessie watershed |
| spellingShingle | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn Asmare Belay Nigussie Anteneh Yayeh Adamu Gerawork Feleke Mulu Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia Geocarto International climate change cmip6 drought indices swat kessie watershed |
| title | Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | analysis of future meteorological hydrological and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in kessie watershed ethiopia |
| topic | climate change cmip6 drought indices swat kessie watershed |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2247377 |
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