Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC
Buried continuous pipelines are prone to failure due to permanent ground deformation as a result of fault rupture. Since the failure mode is dependent on a number of factors, a probabilistic approach is necessary to correctly compute the seismic risk. In this study, a novel method to estimate region...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Geotechnics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7094/2/3/35 |
| _version_ | 1797487929231147008 |
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| author | Sandip Dey Solomon Tesfamariam |
| author_facet | Sandip Dey Solomon Tesfamariam |
| author_sort | Sandip Dey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Buried continuous pipelines are prone to failure due to permanent ground deformation as a result of fault rupture. Since the failure mode is dependent on a number of factors, a probabilistic approach is necessary to correctly compute the seismic risk. In this study, a novel method to estimate regional seismic risk to buried continuous pipelines is presented. The seismic risk assessment method is thereafter illustrated for buried gas pipelines in the City of Victoria, British Columbia. The illustrated example considers seismic hazard from the Leech River Valley Fault Zone (LRVFZ). The risk assessment approach considers uncertainties of earthquake rupture, soil properties at the site concerned, geometric properties of pipes and operating conditions. Major improvements in this method over existing comparable studies include the use of stochastic earthquake source modeling and analytical Okada solutions to generate regional ground deformation, probabilistically. Previous studies used regression equations to define probabilistic ground deformations along a fault. Secondly, in the current study, experimentally evaluated 3D shell and continuum pipe–soil finite element models were used to compute pipeline responses. Earlier investigations used simple soil spring–beam element pipe models to evaluate the pipeline response. Finally, the current approach uses the multi-fidelity Gaussian process surrogate model to ensure efficiency and limit required computational resources. The developed multi-fidelity Gaussian process surrogate model was successfully cross-validated with high coefficients of determination of 0.92 and 0.96. A fragility curve was generated based on failure criteria from ALA strain limits. The seismic risks of pipeline failure due to compressive buckling and tensile rupture at the given site considered were computed to be 1.5 percent and 0.6 percent in 50 years, respectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T23:54:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b78c337c3d8847b99286bde54f1d0ecd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-7094 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T23:54:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geotechnics |
| spelling | doaj.art-b78c337c3d8847b99286bde54f1d0ecd2023-11-23T16:27:27ZengMDPI AGGeotechnics2673-70942022-08-012373175310.3390/geotechnics2030035Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BCSandip Dey0Solomon Tesfamariam1School of Engineering, Faculty of Applied Science, Okanagan Campus, EME4242-1137 Alumni Ave., Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, CanadaSchool of Engineering, Faculty of Applied Science, Okanagan Campus, EME4242-1137 Alumni Ave., Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, CanadaBuried continuous pipelines are prone to failure due to permanent ground deformation as a result of fault rupture. Since the failure mode is dependent on a number of factors, a probabilistic approach is necessary to correctly compute the seismic risk. In this study, a novel method to estimate regional seismic risk to buried continuous pipelines is presented. The seismic risk assessment method is thereafter illustrated for buried gas pipelines in the City of Victoria, British Columbia. The illustrated example considers seismic hazard from the Leech River Valley Fault Zone (LRVFZ). The risk assessment approach considers uncertainties of earthquake rupture, soil properties at the site concerned, geometric properties of pipes and operating conditions. Major improvements in this method over existing comparable studies include the use of stochastic earthquake source modeling and analytical Okada solutions to generate regional ground deformation, probabilistically. Previous studies used regression equations to define probabilistic ground deformations along a fault. Secondly, in the current study, experimentally evaluated 3D shell and continuum pipe–soil finite element models were used to compute pipeline responses. Earlier investigations used simple soil spring–beam element pipe models to evaluate the pipeline response. Finally, the current approach uses the multi-fidelity Gaussian process surrogate model to ensure efficiency and limit required computational resources. The developed multi-fidelity Gaussian process surrogate model was successfully cross-validated with high coefficients of determination of 0.92 and 0.96. A fragility curve was generated based on failure criteria from ALA strain limits. The seismic risks of pipeline failure due to compressive buckling and tensile rupture at the given site considered were computed to be 1.5 percent and 0.6 percent in 50 years, respectively.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7094/2/3/35permanent ground deformationokada equationsfinite element modelmulti-fidelity Gaussian processes |
| spellingShingle | Sandip Dey Solomon Tesfamariam Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC Geotechnics permanent ground deformation okada equations finite element model multi-fidelity Gaussian processes |
| title | Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC |
| title_full | Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC |
| title_short | Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Buried Pipelines Due to Permanent Ground Deformation for Victoria, BC |
| title_sort | probabilistic seismic risk analysis of buried pipelines due to permanent ground deformation for victoria bc |
| topic | permanent ground deformation okada equations finite element model multi-fidelity Gaussian processes |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7094/2/3/35 |
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