An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system
Abstract In order to contribute to ongoing efforts on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, a new, convection‐permitting, limited‐area coupled model called AROME‐Indian Ocean (AROME‐IO) was deployed in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin (SWIO) in April 2016. The skill of this numerical weather predicting...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-03-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.950 |
| _version_ | 1819017272526635008 |
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| author | Olivier Bousquet David Barbary Soline Bielli Selim Kebir Laure Raynaud Sylvie Malardel Ghislain Faure |
| author_facet | Olivier Bousquet David Barbary Soline Bielli Selim Kebir Laure Raynaud Sylvie Malardel Ghislain Faure |
| author_sort | Olivier Bousquet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In order to contribute to ongoing efforts on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, a new, convection‐permitting, limited‐area coupled model called AROME‐Indian Ocean (AROME‐IO) was deployed in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin (SWIO) in April 2016. The skill of this numerical weather predicting system for TC prediction is evaluated against its coupling model (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting‐Integrated Forecasting System [ECMWF‐IFS]) using 120‐hr reforecasts of 11 major storms that developed in this area over TC seasons 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Results show that AROME‐IO generally provides significantly better performance than IFS for intensity (maximum wind) and structure (wind extensions, radius of maximum wind) forecasts at all lead times, with similar performance in terms of trajectories. The performance of a prototype, 12‐member ensemble prediction system (EPS), of AROME‐IO is also evaluated on the case of TC Fakir (April 2018), a storm characterized by an extremely low predictability in global deterministic and ensemble models. AROME‐IO EPS is shown to significantly improve the predictability of the system with two scenarios being produced: a most probable one (~66%), which follows the prediction of AROME‐IO, and a second one (~33%) that closely matches reality. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T03:00:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b79c2b26e22e4a998f7b1ff2a07f9756 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T03:00:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b79c2b26e22e4a998f7b1ff2a07f97562022-12-21T19:18:12ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2020-03-01213n/an/a10.1002/asl.950An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting systemOlivier Bousquet0David Barbary1Soline Bielli2Selim Kebir3Laure Raynaud4Sylvie Malardel5Ghislain Faure6Laboratoire de L'Atmosphère et des Cyclones UMR 8105 (Météo‐France, CNRS, Université de La Réunion) Saint‐Denis FranceDirection Interrégionale de Météo‐France pour l'Océan Indien Saint‐Denis FranceLaboratoire de L'Atmosphère et des Cyclones UMR 8105 (Météo‐France, CNRS, Université de La Réunion) Saint‐Denis FranceLaboratoire de L'Atmosphère et des Cyclones UMR 8105 (Météo‐France, CNRS, Université de La Réunion) Saint‐Denis FranceCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques UMR 3589 (Météo‐France and CNRS Toulouse FranceLaboratoire de L'Atmosphère et des Cyclones UMR 8105 (Météo‐France, CNRS, Université de La Réunion) Saint‐Denis FranceCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques UMR 3589 (Météo‐France and CNRS Toulouse FranceAbstract In order to contribute to ongoing efforts on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, a new, convection‐permitting, limited‐area coupled model called AROME‐Indian Ocean (AROME‐IO) was deployed in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin (SWIO) in April 2016. The skill of this numerical weather predicting system for TC prediction is evaluated against its coupling model (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting‐Integrated Forecasting System [ECMWF‐IFS]) using 120‐hr reforecasts of 11 major storms that developed in this area over TC seasons 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Results show that AROME‐IO generally provides significantly better performance than IFS for intensity (maximum wind) and structure (wind extensions, radius of maximum wind) forecasts at all lead times, with similar performance in terms of trajectories. The performance of a prototype, 12‐member ensemble prediction system (EPS), of AROME‐IO is also evaluated on the case of TC Fakir (April 2018), a storm characterized by an extremely low predictability in global deterministic and ensemble models. AROME‐IO EPS is shown to significantly improve the predictability of the system with two scenarios being produced: a most probable one (~66%), which follows the prediction of AROME‐IO, and a second one (~33%) that closely matches reality.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.950ensemble forecastingmesoscale modelingocean–atmosphere couplingtropical cyclonesSouthwest Indian Ocean |
| spellingShingle | Olivier Bousquet David Barbary Soline Bielli Selim Kebir Laure Raynaud Sylvie Malardel Ghislain Faure An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system Atmospheric Science Letters ensemble forecasting mesoscale modeling ocean–atmosphere coupling tropical cyclones Southwest Indian Ocean |
| title | An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system |
| title_full | An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system |
| title_fullStr | An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system |
| title_full_unstemmed | An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system |
| title_short | An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system |
| title_sort | evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the southwest indian ocean basin with arome indian ocean convection permitting numerical weather predicting system |
| topic | ensemble forecasting mesoscale modeling ocean–atmosphere coupling tropical cyclones Southwest Indian Ocean |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.950 |
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