Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran
Abstract Understanding dynamics of free-roaming dog (FRD) population is critical for planning and implementation of dog population management programs. FRD population size estimation as well as dynamic modeling of dog population under different female dog neutering interventions were investigated in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08697-w |
| _version_ | 1818356825932693504 |
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| author | Saeedeh Shamsaddini Milad Ahmadi Gohari Hossein Kamyabi Saeid Nasibi Ali Derakhshani Mohammad Ali Mohammadi Seyed Mohammad Mousavi Mohammad Reza Baneshi Elly Hiby Majid Fasihi Harandi |
| author_facet | Saeedeh Shamsaddini Milad Ahmadi Gohari Hossein Kamyabi Saeid Nasibi Ali Derakhshani Mohammad Ali Mohammadi Seyed Mohammad Mousavi Mohammad Reza Baneshi Elly Hiby Majid Fasihi Harandi |
| author_sort | Saeedeh Shamsaddini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding dynamics of free-roaming dog (FRD) population is critical for planning and implementation of dog population management programs. FRD population size estimation as well as dynamic modeling of dog population under different female dog neutering interventions were investigated in order to determine the most appropriate animal birth control approach. We performed population size estimate of dogs using sight-resight surveys by photography in a randomly selected 25 blocks of the city and all the suburbs of greater Kerman area. Main demographic features were characterized and the dog density distribution was mapped. A dynamic model was developed to predict free-roaming dog population variations after 5 and 10 years. Different scenarios based on 10, 30, 50, 60 and 70% female dog sterilization were considered to predict the effects of animal birth control measures. Free roaming dog population was estimated at 6781 dogs (65.3% males) in Kerman and suburbs with several major population hotspots. Analysis of the dog locations within the city showed that the largest proportion of the dogs were observed in the vacant lots (46.2%). Modeling predictions indicated that, in the absence of management, the free-roaming dog population could increase from a baseline of 6781 to 13,665 dogs (2.02 fold increase) in 5 years and to 19,376 dogs in 10 years (2.86 fold increase). Using a population dynamics model, we simulated five neutering coverages to explore the impact of female neutering on free-roaming dog population size. The 5-year projections of the model have shown that 50% annual female dog sterilization significantly reduced free-roaming dog population by 0.44 comparing to the baseline population. Findings of the present study improve our knowledge on the nature and extent of dog population dynamics in Iran. Effective population control and selection of the most appropriate neutering interventions require a comprehensive knowledge of the characteristics and dynamics of FRD population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T20:03:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b79f3584eeca4603a8558cdd5c524827 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T20:03:22Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-b79f3584eeca4603a8558cdd5c5248272022-12-21T23:33:06ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-03-0112111410.1038/s41598-022-08697-wDynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern IranSaeedeh Shamsaddini0Milad Ahmadi Gohari1Hossein Kamyabi2Saeid Nasibi3Ali Derakhshani4Mohammad Ali Mohammadi5Seyed Mohammad Mousavi6Mohammad Reza Baneshi7Elly Hiby8Majid Fasihi Harandi9Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical SciencesModeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Medical Parasitology, School of Medicine, Kerman University of Medical SciencesResearch Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical SciencesResearch Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical SciencesResearch Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical SciencesResearch Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical SciencesModeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical SciencesThe Alliance for Contraception in Cats and Dogs (ACC&D)Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Kerman University of Medical SciencesAbstract Understanding dynamics of free-roaming dog (FRD) population is critical for planning and implementation of dog population management programs. FRD population size estimation as well as dynamic modeling of dog population under different female dog neutering interventions were investigated in order to determine the most appropriate animal birth control approach. We performed population size estimate of dogs using sight-resight surveys by photography in a randomly selected 25 blocks of the city and all the suburbs of greater Kerman area. Main demographic features were characterized and the dog density distribution was mapped. A dynamic model was developed to predict free-roaming dog population variations after 5 and 10 years. Different scenarios based on 10, 30, 50, 60 and 70% female dog sterilization were considered to predict the effects of animal birth control measures. Free roaming dog population was estimated at 6781 dogs (65.3% males) in Kerman and suburbs with several major population hotspots. Analysis of the dog locations within the city showed that the largest proportion of the dogs were observed in the vacant lots (46.2%). Modeling predictions indicated that, in the absence of management, the free-roaming dog population could increase from a baseline of 6781 to 13,665 dogs (2.02 fold increase) in 5 years and to 19,376 dogs in 10 years (2.86 fold increase). Using a population dynamics model, we simulated five neutering coverages to explore the impact of female neutering on free-roaming dog population size. The 5-year projections of the model have shown that 50% annual female dog sterilization significantly reduced free-roaming dog population by 0.44 comparing to the baseline population. Findings of the present study improve our knowledge on the nature and extent of dog population dynamics in Iran. Effective population control and selection of the most appropriate neutering interventions require a comprehensive knowledge of the characteristics and dynamics of FRD population.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08697-w |
| spellingShingle | Saeedeh Shamsaddini Milad Ahmadi Gohari Hossein Kamyabi Saeid Nasibi Ali Derakhshani Mohammad Ali Mohammadi Seyed Mohammad Mousavi Mohammad Reza Baneshi Elly Hiby Majid Fasihi Harandi Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran Scientific Reports |
| title | Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran |
| title_full | Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran |
| title_short | Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran |
| title_sort | dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern iran |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08697-w |
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