Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach

Seismotectonic processes of the Shillong Plateau (SP) have been influenced by the Himalayan orogeny, the India-Burmese subduction, and the Bengal Basin evolution leading to high seismic activity in the region. With a goal of assessing seismic hazards in the SP and providing a scientific information...

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Main Authors: Olympa Baro, Abhishek Kumar, Alik Ismail-Zadeh
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2020-01-01
Series:Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1833989
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author Olympa Baro
Abhishek Kumar
Alik Ismail-Zadeh
author_facet Olympa Baro
Abhishek Kumar
Alik Ismail-Zadeh
author_sort Olympa Baro
collection DOAJ
description Seismotectonic processes of the Shillong Plateau (SP) have been influenced by the Himalayan orogeny, the India-Burmese subduction, and the Bengal Basin evolution leading to high seismic activity in the region. With a goal of assessing seismic hazards in the SP and providing a scientific information to engineering and disaster risk management communities, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is employed to determine hazard in highly-populated districts of SP and particularly in Shillong, Nongpoh, and Tura cities, located within the districts. This analysis is based on the use of historical and instrumentally recorded regional earthquakes since 1411 and deals with uncertainties related to earthquake magnitudes, rupture locations, and the frequency of ground motion exceedance. Individual hazard curves indicate that the Barapani fault possesses the highest frequency of seismic hazard for Shillong city and Nongpoh, and the Eocene hinge zone and Dauki faults are responsible for the highest frequency of seismic hazard at Tura. The results of the hazard assessment together with those obtained earlier using a scenario-based approach demonstrate that although the Oldham fault located near Tura can produce a great, but rare earthquake, few other nearby faults are capable of producing smaller magnitude events with a higher probability of occurrence.
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spelling doaj.art-b7a46b94b50848f4b81940a7775953852022-12-21T19:42:07ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132020-01-011112210223810.1080/19475705.2020.18339891833989Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approachOlympa Baro0Abhishek Kumar1Alik Ismail-Zadeh2Civil Engineering, National Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologySeismotectonic processes of the Shillong Plateau (SP) have been influenced by the Himalayan orogeny, the India-Burmese subduction, and the Bengal Basin evolution leading to high seismic activity in the region. With a goal of assessing seismic hazards in the SP and providing a scientific information to engineering and disaster risk management communities, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is employed to determine hazard in highly-populated districts of SP and particularly in Shillong, Nongpoh, and Tura cities, located within the districts. This analysis is based on the use of historical and instrumentally recorded regional earthquakes since 1411 and deals with uncertainties related to earthquake magnitudes, rupture locations, and the frequency of ground motion exceedance. Individual hazard curves indicate that the Barapani fault possesses the highest frequency of seismic hazard for Shillong city and Nongpoh, and the Eocene hinge zone and Dauki faults are responsible for the highest frequency of seismic hazard at Tura. The results of the hazard assessment together with those obtained earlier using a scenario-based approach demonstrate that although the Oldham fault located near Tura can produce a great, but rare earthquake, few other nearby faults are capable of producing smaller magnitude events with a higher probability of occurrence.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1833989seismic hazardprobabilistic analysisshillong plateauseismicityseismotectonics
spellingShingle Olympa Baro
Abhishek Kumar
Alik Ismail-Zadeh
Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach
Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
seismic hazard
probabilistic analysis
shillong plateau
seismicity
seismotectonics
title Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach
title_full Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach
title_fullStr Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach
title_full_unstemmed Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach
title_short Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau using a probabilistic approach
title_sort seismic hazard assessment of the shillong plateau using a probabilistic approach
topic seismic hazard
probabilistic analysis
shillong plateau
seismicity
seismotectonics
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1833989
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