Estimating uncertainty in density surface models
Providing uncertainty estimates for predictions derived from species distribution models is essential for management but there is little guidance on potential sources of uncertainty in predictions and how best to combine these. Here we show where uncertainty can arise in density surface models (a mu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PeerJ Inc.
2022-08-01
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| Series: | PeerJ |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/13950.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797413070167867392 |
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| author | David L. Miller Elizabeth A. Becker Karin A. Forney Jason J. Roberts Ana Cañadas Robert S. Schick |
| author_facet | David L. Miller Elizabeth A. Becker Karin A. Forney Jason J. Roberts Ana Cañadas Robert S. Schick |
| author_sort | David L. Miller |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Providing uncertainty estimates for predictions derived from species distribution models is essential for management but there is little guidance on potential sources of uncertainty in predictions and how best to combine these. Here we show where uncertainty can arise in density surface models (a multi-stage spatial modelling approach for distance sampling data), focussing on cetacean density modelling. We propose an extensible, modular, hybrid analytical-simulation approach to encapsulate these sources. We provide example analyses of fin whales Balaenoptera physalus in the California Current Ecosystem. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:12:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b7af2697e3c346c9a671a56d49254c35 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:12:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-b7af2697e3c346c9a671a56d49254c352023-12-03T12:48:39ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592022-08-0110e1395010.7717/peerj.13950Estimating uncertainty in density surface modelsDavid L. Miller0Elizabeth A. Becker1Karin A. Forney2Jason J. Roberts3Ana Cañadas4Robert S. Schick5Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling and School of Mathematics & Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, ScotlandOcean Associates, Inc. under contract to Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, CA, United States of AmericaMarine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Moss Landing, CA, United States of AmericaMarine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of AmericaMarine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of AmericaMarine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of AmericaProviding uncertainty estimates for predictions derived from species distribution models is essential for management but there is little guidance on potential sources of uncertainty in predictions and how best to combine these. Here we show where uncertainty can arise in density surface models (a multi-stage spatial modelling approach for distance sampling data), focussing on cetacean density modelling. We propose an extensible, modular, hybrid analytical-simulation approach to encapsulate these sources. We provide example analyses of fin whales Balaenoptera physalus in the California Current Ecosystem.https://peerj.com/articles/13950.pdfDensity surface modelsDistance samplingUncertainty quantificationSpatial modellingSpecies distribution modellingModel uncertainty |
| spellingShingle | David L. Miller Elizabeth A. Becker Karin A. Forney Jason J. Roberts Ana Cañadas Robert S. Schick Estimating uncertainty in density surface models PeerJ Density surface models Distance sampling Uncertainty quantification Spatial modelling Species distribution modelling Model uncertainty |
| title | Estimating uncertainty in density surface models |
| title_full | Estimating uncertainty in density surface models |
| title_fullStr | Estimating uncertainty in density surface models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating uncertainty in density surface models |
| title_short | Estimating uncertainty in density surface models |
| title_sort | estimating uncertainty in density surface models |
| topic | Density surface models Distance sampling Uncertainty quantification Spatial modelling Species distribution modelling Model uncertainty |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/13950.pdf |
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