Energy consumption forecast of Turkey using artificial neural networks from a sustainability perspective
As industrialization, population and living standards increase, energy becomes increasingly crucial. Therefore, modeling and forecasting of energy use is critical for countries. The studies carried out for energy consumption estimation were examined and indicators used in the literature were classif...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2022-09-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Sustainable Energy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2022.2026357 |
| Summary: | As industrialization, population and living standards increase, energy becomes increasingly crucial. Therefore, modeling and forecasting of energy use is critical for countries. The studies carried out for energy consumption estimation were examined and indicators used in the literature were classified according to the three main dimensions of sustainability, social, economic, and environmental factors. Turkey's energy consumption estimates were made by four sustainability-based models. Input variables are GDP, electricity sales prices, import, population and temperature, while output variable is gross energy consumption. The models were tested and compared with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The best-performing Social-Economic-Environmental model has lowest MSE value (0.0001114) and highest R² value (0.99912). This model was used to forecast Turkey's energy use between 2021 and 2025. |
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| ISSN: | 1478-6451 1478-646X |