Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study
Abstract China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions aga...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7 |
| _version_ | 1811177894324469760 |
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| author | Zhiqi Zeng Tong Wu Zhijie Lin Lei Luo Zhengshi Lin Wenda Guan Jingyi Liang Minfei Yu Peikun Guan Wei He Zige Liu Guibin Lu Peifang Xie Canxiong Chen Eric H. Y. Lau Zifeng Yang Chitin Hon Jianxing He |
| author_facet | Zhiqi Zeng Tong Wu Zhijie Lin Lei Luo Zhengshi Lin Wenda Guan Jingyi Liang Minfei Yu Peikun Guan Wei He Zige Liu Guibin Lu Peifang Xie Canxiong Chen Eric H. Y. Lau Zifeng Yang Chitin Hon Jianxing He |
| author_sort | Zhiqi Zeng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (R t ) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:10:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b7da6adfe05a4fd9b4a9e8b1161662fe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:10:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-b7da6adfe05a4fd9b4a9e8b1161662fe2022-12-22T04:41:22ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-12-0112111410.1038/s41598-022-21674-7Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling studyZhiqi Zeng0Tong Wu1Zhijie Lin2Lei Luo3Zhengshi Lin4Wenda Guan5Jingyi Liang6Minfei Yu7Peikun Guan8Wei He9Zige Liu10Guibin Lu11Peifang Xie12Canxiong Chen13Eric H. Y. Lau14Zifeng Yang15Chitin Hon16Jianxing He17State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityMacao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and TechnologyMacao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and TechnologyGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityMacao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and TechnologyMacao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and TechnologyMacao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and TechnologyFaculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Li Ka Shing, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong KongState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityMacao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityAbstract China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (R t ) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7 |
| spellingShingle | Zhiqi Zeng Tong Wu Zhijie Lin Lei Luo Zhengshi Lin Wenda Guan Jingyi Liang Minfei Yu Peikun Guan Wei He Zige Liu Guibin Lu Peifang Xie Canxiong Chen Eric H. Y. Lau Zifeng Yang Chitin Hon Jianxing He Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study Scientific Reports |
| title | Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study |
| title_full | Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study |
| title_short | Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study |
| title_sort | containment of sars cov 2 delta strain in guangzhou china by quarantine and social distancing a modelling study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21674-7 |
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