What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand
<p>We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case study from the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere / Franz Josef Glacier and Te Moeka o Tuawe / Fox Glacier valleys, on the west coast of the South Island, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The glacier valleys are important tourist destinations that are subje...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/2289/2022/nhess-22-2289-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811225328738107392 |
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| author | S. de Vilder C. Massey B. Lukovic T. Taig R. Morgenstern |
| author_facet | S. de Vilder C. Massey B. Lukovic T. Taig R. Morgenstern |
| author_sort | S. de Vilder |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case study from the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere / Franz Josef Glacier and Te Moeka o Tuawe / Fox Glacier valleys, on the west coast of the South Island, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The glacier valleys are important tourist destinations that are subject to landslide hazards. Both valleys contain actively retreating glaciers; experience high rainfall; and are proximal to the Alpine Fault, which is a major source of seismic hazard on the west coast. We considered the life safety risk from rockfalls, soil/rock avalanches, and flows that either are seismically triggered or occur aseismically. To determine the range in risk values and dominant contributing variables to the risk, we modelled nine different risk scenarios where we incrementally changed the variables used in the risk model to account for the underlying uncertainty. The scenarios represent our central estimate of the risk, e.g. neither optimistic nor conservative, through to our upper estimate of the risk. We include in these estimates the impact time-variable factors, such as a recently reactivated landslide, have had on locally increasing risk and the time-elapsed since the last major earthquake on the nearby Alpine Fault. We disaggregated our risk results to determine the dominant drivers in landslide risk, which highlighted the importance of considering dynamic time-variable risk scenarios and the changing contributions to risk from aseismic versus seismic landslides. A detailed understanding of the drivers of landslide risk in each valley is important to determine the most efficient and appropriate risk management decisions.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:05:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b7ea80e0d9d44c5eb0404fa6665c737c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:05:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-b7ea80e0d9d44c5eb0404fa6665c737c2022-12-22T03:39:07ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812022-07-01222289231610.5194/nhess-22-2289-2022What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New ZealandS. de Vilder0C. Massey1B. Lukovic2T. Taig3R. Morgenstern4GNS Science, Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai / Lower Hutt, 6012, Aotearoa / New ZealandGNS Science, Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai / Lower Hutt, 6012, Aotearoa / New ZealandGNS Science, Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai / Lower Hutt, 6012, Aotearoa / New ZealandTTAC Ltd, Cheshire, Wincham, CW9 6EU, United KingdomGNS Science, Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai / Lower Hutt, 6012, Aotearoa / New Zealand<p>We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case study from the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere / Franz Josef Glacier and Te Moeka o Tuawe / Fox Glacier valleys, on the west coast of the South Island, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The glacier valleys are important tourist destinations that are subject to landslide hazards. Both valleys contain actively retreating glaciers; experience high rainfall; and are proximal to the Alpine Fault, which is a major source of seismic hazard on the west coast. We considered the life safety risk from rockfalls, soil/rock avalanches, and flows that either are seismically triggered or occur aseismically. To determine the range in risk values and dominant contributing variables to the risk, we modelled nine different risk scenarios where we incrementally changed the variables used in the risk model to account for the underlying uncertainty. The scenarios represent our central estimate of the risk, e.g. neither optimistic nor conservative, through to our upper estimate of the risk. We include in these estimates the impact time-variable factors, such as a recently reactivated landslide, have had on locally increasing risk and the time-elapsed since the last major earthquake on the nearby Alpine Fault. We disaggregated our risk results to determine the dominant drivers in landslide risk, which highlighted the importance of considering dynamic time-variable risk scenarios and the changing contributions to risk from aseismic versus seismic landslides. A detailed understanding of the drivers of landslide risk in each valley is important to determine the most efficient and appropriate risk management decisions.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/2289/2022/nhess-22-2289-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. de Vilder C. Massey B. Lukovic T. Taig R. Morgenstern What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand |
| title_full | What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand |
| title_fullStr | What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand |
| title_full_unstemmed | What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand |
| title_short | What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand |
| title_sort | what drives landslide risk disaggregating risk analyses an example from the franz josef glacier and fox glacier valleys new zealand |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/2289/2022/nhess-22-2289-2022.pdf |
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