A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is envisaged as a critical element of most deep decarbonisation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such a transformational upscaling—to 3–7 Gt CO _2 /yr by 2050—requires an unprecedented technological, economic, socio-cultural and politica...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c3e |
| _version_ | 1797747680225525760 |
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| author | Isabela Butnar Pei-Hao Li Neil Strachan Joana Portugal Pereira Ajay Gambhir Pete Smith |
| author_facet | Isabela Butnar Pei-Hao Li Neil Strachan Joana Portugal Pereira Ajay Gambhir Pete Smith |
| author_sort | Isabela Butnar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is envisaged as a critical element of most deep decarbonisation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such a transformational upscaling—to 3–7 Gt CO _2 /yr by 2050—requires an unprecedented technological, economic, socio-cultural and political effort, along with, crucially, transparent communication between all stakeholders. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that underpin the 1.5 °C scenarios assessed by IPCC have played a critical role in building and assessing deep decarbonisation narratives. However, their high-level aggregation and their complexity can cause them to be perceived as non-transparent by stakeholders outside of the IAM community. This paper bridges this gap by offering a comprehensive assessment of BECCS assumptions as used in IAMs so as to open them to a wider audience. We focus on key assumptions that underpin five aspects of BECCS: biomass availability, BECCS technologies, CO _2 transport and storage infrastructure, BECCS costs, and wider system conditions which favour the deployment of BECCS. Through a structured review, we find that all IAMs communicate wider system assumptions and major cost assumptions transparently. This quality however fades as we dig deeper into modelling details. This is particularly true for sets of technological elements such as CO _2 transport and storage infrastructure, for which we found the least transparent assumptions. We also found that IAMs are less transparent on the completeness of their treatment of the five BECCS aspects we investigated, and not transparent regarding the inclusion and treatment of socio-cultural and institutional-regulatory dimensions of feasibility which are key BECCS elements as suggested by the IPCC. We conclude with a practical discussion around ways of increasing IAM transparency as a bridge between this community and stakeholders from other disciplines, policy decision makers, financiers, and the public. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b8111a4f74e645cdbbd4e66e7139cd01 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:01Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b8111a4f74e645cdbbd4e66e7139cd012023-08-09T15:00:54ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115808400810.1088/1748-9326/ab5c3eA deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exerciseIsabela Butnar0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9908-220XPei-Hao Li1Neil Strachan2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5595-1645Joana Portugal Pereira3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1260-6950Ajay Gambhir4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5079-4537Pete Smith5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3784-1124University College London , London, United KingomUniversity College London , London, United KingomUniversity College London , London, United KingomUniversidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro , Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Imperial College London, London, United KingdomImperial College London, London, United KingdomUniversity of Aberdeen , Aberdeen, United KindomBioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is envisaged as a critical element of most deep decarbonisation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such a transformational upscaling—to 3–7 Gt CO _2 /yr by 2050—requires an unprecedented technological, economic, socio-cultural and political effort, along with, crucially, transparent communication between all stakeholders. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that underpin the 1.5 °C scenarios assessed by IPCC have played a critical role in building and assessing deep decarbonisation narratives. However, their high-level aggregation and their complexity can cause them to be perceived as non-transparent by stakeholders outside of the IAM community. This paper bridges this gap by offering a comprehensive assessment of BECCS assumptions as used in IAMs so as to open them to a wider audience. We focus on key assumptions that underpin five aspects of BECCS: biomass availability, BECCS technologies, CO _2 transport and storage infrastructure, BECCS costs, and wider system conditions which favour the deployment of BECCS. Through a structured review, we find that all IAMs communicate wider system assumptions and major cost assumptions transparently. This quality however fades as we dig deeper into modelling details. This is particularly true for sets of technological elements such as CO _2 transport and storage infrastructure, for which we found the least transparent assumptions. We also found that IAMs are less transparent on the completeness of their treatment of the five BECCS aspects we investigated, and not transparent regarding the inclusion and treatment of socio-cultural and institutional-regulatory dimensions of feasibility which are key BECCS elements as suggested by the IPCC. We conclude with a practical discussion around ways of increasing IAM transparency as a bridge between this community and stakeholders from other disciplines, policy decision makers, financiers, and the public.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c3eintegrated assessment modelsbioenergy with carbon capture and storagemodel assumptionstransparencyclimate mitigation |
| spellingShingle | Isabela Butnar Pei-Hao Li Neil Strachan Joana Portugal Pereira Ajay Gambhir Pete Smith A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise Environmental Research Letters integrated assessment models bioenergy with carbon capture and storage model assumptions transparency climate mitigation |
| title | A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise |
| title_full | A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise |
| title_fullStr | A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise |
| title_full_unstemmed | A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise |
| title_short | A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise |
| title_sort | deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage beccs a transparency exercise |
| topic | integrated assessment models bioenergy with carbon capture and storage model assumptions transparency climate mitigation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c3e |
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