Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development
Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/4/68 |
| _version_ | 1797537208073191424 |
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| author | Mary Ann Cunningham Nicholas S. Wright Penelope B. Mort Ranta Hannah K. Benton Hassan G. Ragy Christopher J. Edington Chloe A. Kellner |
| author_facet | Mary Ann Cunningham Nicholas S. Wright Penelope B. Mort Ranta Hannah K. Benton Hassan G. Ragy Christopher J. Edington Chloe A. Kellner |
| author_sort | Mary Ann Cunningham |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (<i>Gossypium hirsutum</i>) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T12:12:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b839f5e5221342368de11f30a06153e5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1154 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T12:12:51Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-b839f5e5221342368de11f30a06153e52023-11-21T16:08:25ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542021-04-01946810.3390/cli9040068Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable DevelopmentMary Ann Cunningham0Nicholas S. Wright1Penelope B. Mort Ranta2Hannah K. Benton3Hassan G. Ragy4Christopher J. Edington5Chloe A. Kellner6Department of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USADepartment of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USADepartment of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USADepartment of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USADepartment of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USADepartment of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USADepartment of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USAClimate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (<i>Gossypium hirsutum</i>) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/4/68climate impactsrainfed cottonspecies distribution modelMaxentsustainable development goals (SDGs)West Africa |
| spellingShingle | Mary Ann Cunningham Nicholas S. Wright Penelope B. Mort Ranta Hannah K. Benton Hassan G. Ragy Christopher J. Edington Chloe A. Kellner Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development Climate climate impacts rainfed cotton species distribution model Maxent sustainable development goals (SDGs) West Africa |
| title | Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development |
| title_full | Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development |
| title_fullStr | Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development |
| title_short | Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development |
| title_sort | mapping vulnerability of cotton to climate change in west africa challenges for sustainable development |
| topic | climate impacts rainfed cotton species distribution model Maxent sustainable development goals (SDGs) West Africa |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/4/68 |
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