Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years
Background/Purpose: Globally, asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) keep rising over the coming decades. The epidemic of ARDs will be a burden on public health. We aimed to predict the malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) incidence in the next 30 years for Taiwan based on historical asbestos consumption....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of the Formosan Medical Association |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092966461830250X |
| _version_ | 1811232552013266944 |
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| author | Ro-Ting Lin Yu-Yin Chang Jung-Der Wang Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn Lee |
| author_facet | Ro-Ting Lin Yu-Yin Chang Jung-Der Wang Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn Lee |
| author_sort | Ro-Ting Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background/Purpose: Globally, asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) keep rising over the coming decades. The epidemic of ARDs will be a burden on public health. We aimed to predict the malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) incidence in the next 30 years for Taiwan based on historical asbestos consumption. Methods: We collected annual data on local asbestos consumption during 1939–2015 and sex-specific incidence of pleural cancer as a proxy for MPM during 1979–2013. We applied Poisson log-linear models to predict future MPM numbers under the assumption that latency periods between asbestos exposure and MPM incidence were between 25 and 45 years. Results: Asbestos consumption reached a peak in the 1980s, with a total of 668 thousand metric tons during 1939–2015. The observed number of MPM incidence increased by 9- and 6-fold in males and females during 1979–2013, with a cumulative number of 907. Given a latency period of 31 years, MPM incidences were expected to peak around 2012–2016 for males and 2016–2020 for females. In 2017–2046, the predicted total number of new MPM might reach 659 cases (95% confidence interval = 579–749); and the male to female ratios ranged from 1.8 to 2.8. Conclusion: The MPM epidemic in Taiwan will likely peak in 2012–2020 as a result of local asbestos consumption. Approximately 659 new MPM cases in the next 30 years warrant an urgent need to implement a total asbestos ban and put more resources on a comprehensive surveillance, diagnosis, and follow-up health care system for ARDs. Keywords: Asbestos, Mesothelioma, Pleural cancer |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:04:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b862a027bcfe43049cfbeabf2ddc9645 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0929-6646 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:04:48Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of the Formosan Medical Association |
| spelling | doaj.art-b862a027bcfe43049cfbeabf2ddc96452022-12-22T03:35:50ZengElsevierJournal of the Formosan Medical Association0929-66462019-01-011181463470Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 yearsRo-Ting Lin0Yu-Yin Chang1Jung-Der Wang2Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn Lee3Department of Occupational Safety and Health, College of Public Health, China Medical University, No. 91 Hsueh-Shih Road, Taichung, 40402, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, 35 Keyan Road, Zhunan, Miaoli County, 35053, Taiwan; Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, Concord Clinical School, University of Sydney, Gate 3 Hospital Road, Concord, NSW, 2139, AustraliaNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, 35 Keyan Road, Zhunan, Miaoli County, 35053, TaiwanDepartment of Public Health College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan, 70101, Taiwan; Departments of Internal Medicine and Occupational and Environmental Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, No. 1, University Road, Tainan, 70101, TaiwanNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, 35 Keyan Road, Zhunan, Miaoli County, 35053, Taiwan; Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei, 100, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, 100, Shih-Chuan 1st Rd., Kaohsiung City, 807, Taiwan; Corresponding author. 35 Keyan Road, Zhunan Town, Miaoli County, 35053, Taiwan.Background/Purpose: Globally, asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) keep rising over the coming decades. The epidemic of ARDs will be a burden on public health. We aimed to predict the malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) incidence in the next 30 years for Taiwan based on historical asbestos consumption. Methods: We collected annual data on local asbestos consumption during 1939–2015 and sex-specific incidence of pleural cancer as a proxy for MPM during 1979–2013. We applied Poisson log-linear models to predict future MPM numbers under the assumption that latency periods between asbestos exposure and MPM incidence were between 25 and 45 years. Results: Asbestos consumption reached a peak in the 1980s, with a total of 668 thousand metric tons during 1939–2015. The observed number of MPM incidence increased by 9- and 6-fold in males and females during 1979–2013, with a cumulative number of 907. Given a latency period of 31 years, MPM incidences were expected to peak around 2012–2016 for males and 2016–2020 for females. In 2017–2046, the predicted total number of new MPM might reach 659 cases (95% confidence interval = 579–749); and the male to female ratios ranged from 1.8 to 2.8. Conclusion: The MPM epidemic in Taiwan will likely peak in 2012–2020 as a result of local asbestos consumption. Approximately 659 new MPM cases in the next 30 years warrant an urgent need to implement a total asbestos ban and put more resources on a comprehensive surveillance, diagnosis, and follow-up health care system for ARDs. Keywords: Asbestos, Mesothelioma, Pleural cancerhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092966461830250X |
| spellingShingle | Ro-Ting Lin Yu-Yin Chang Jung-Der Wang Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn Lee Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years Journal of the Formosan Medical Association |
| title | Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years |
| title_full | Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years |
| title_fullStr | Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years |
| title_full_unstemmed | Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years |
| title_short | Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years |
| title_sort | upcoming epidemic of asbestos related malignant pleural mesothelioma in taiwan a prediction of incidence in the next 30 years |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092966461830250X |
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