Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania)
Land use and land cover (LULC) under improper land management is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa and has drastically affected ecological security. Addressing environmental impacts related to this challenge requires efficient planning strategies based on the measured information of land use p...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/19/3114 |
| _version_ | 1797552924336848896 |
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| author | Hassan Omar Pedro Cabral |
| author_facet | Hassan Omar Pedro Cabral |
| author_sort | Hassan Omar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use and land cover (LULC) under improper land management is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa and has drastically affected ecological security. Addressing environmental impacts related to this challenge requires efficient planning strategies based on the measured information of land use patterns. This study assessed the ecological risk index (ERI) of Zanzibar based on LULC. A random forest classifier was used to classify three Landsat images of Zanzibar for the years 2003, 2009, and 2018. Then, a land change model was employed to simulate the LULC changes for 2027 under a business-as-usual (BAU), conservation, and extreme scenarios. Results showed that the built-up areas and farmland of Zanzibar Island have increased constantly, while the natural grassland and forest cover have decreased. The forest, agricultural, and grassland were highly fragmented into several small patches. The ERI of Zanzibar Island increased at a constant rate and, if the current trend continues, this index will increase by up to 8.9% in 2027 under an extreme scenario. If a conservation scenario is adopted, the ERI will increase by 4.6% whereas if a BAU policy is followed, this value will increase by 6.2%. This study provides authorities with useful information to understand better the ecological processes and LULC dynamics and prevent unmanaged growth and haphazard development of informal housing and infrastructure. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:08:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b86a751e374944278b2f3dedba01873c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:08:00Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-b86a751e374944278b2f3dedba01873c2023-11-20T14:45:04ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922020-09-011219311410.3390/rs12193114Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania)Hassan Omar0Pedro Cabral1Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, The State University of Zanzibar (SUZA), Zanzibar P.O. Box 146, TanzaniaNOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS), Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 1070-312 Lisboa, PortugalLand use and land cover (LULC) under improper land management is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa and has drastically affected ecological security. Addressing environmental impacts related to this challenge requires efficient planning strategies based on the measured information of land use patterns. This study assessed the ecological risk index (ERI) of Zanzibar based on LULC. A random forest classifier was used to classify three Landsat images of Zanzibar for the years 2003, 2009, and 2018. Then, a land change model was employed to simulate the LULC changes for 2027 under a business-as-usual (BAU), conservation, and extreme scenarios. Results showed that the built-up areas and farmland of Zanzibar Island have increased constantly, while the natural grassland and forest cover have decreased. The forest, agricultural, and grassland were highly fragmented into several small patches. The ERI of Zanzibar Island increased at a constant rate and, if the current trend continues, this index will increase by up to 8.9% in 2027 under an extreme scenario. If a conservation scenario is adopted, the ERI will increase by 4.6% whereas if a BAU policy is followed, this value will increase by 6.2%. This study provides authorities with useful information to understand better the ecological processes and LULC dynamics and prevent unmanaged growth and haphazard development of informal housing and infrastructure.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/19/3114ecosystem servicesland change modelinglandscape ecological statisticsrandom forest classifier |
| spellingShingle | Hassan Omar Pedro Cabral Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania) Remote Sensing ecosystem services land change modeling landscape ecological statistics random forest classifier |
| title | Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania) |
| title_full | Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania) |
| title_fullStr | Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania) |
| title_short | Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania) |
| title_sort | ecological risk assessment based on land cover changes a case of zanzibar tanzania |
| topic | ecosystem services land change modeling landscape ecological statistics random forest classifier |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/19/3114 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hassanomar ecologicalriskassessmentbasedonlandcoverchangesacaseofzanzibartanzania AT pedrocabral ecologicalriskassessmentbasedonlandcoverchangesacaseofzanzibartanzania |