Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach
This paper envisages estimating the Time-Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (TV-NAIRU) as an unobserved stochastic variable for Pakistan over the time period 1973-74 to 2007-08 using Kalman filter. Results of the study are evident that TV-NAIRU increased from 5.3 percent (1990-9...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EconJournals
2011-10-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues |
| Online Access: | http://mail.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/43 |
| _version_ | 1797920968181547008 |
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| author | Farzana Shaheen Azad Haider Sajid Amin Javed |
| author_facet | Farzana Shaheen Azad Haider Sajid Amin Javed |
| author_sort | Farzana Shaheen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper envisages estimating the Time-Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (TV-NAIRU) as an unobserved stochastic variable for Pakistan over the time period 1973-74 to 2007-08 using Kalman filter. Results of the study are evident that TV-NAIRU increased from 5.3 percent (1990-91) to 8.12 percent (2004-05) and falls to 6.17 percent again in 2007-08 which is above the actual unemployment rate. The results also indicate that the NAIRU is a relevant concept and the unemployment gap should be one of the factors considered when assessing inflationary pressure in Pakistan.
Keywords: Pakistan; Unemployment; Inflation; NAIRU; Phillips Curve
JEL Classifications: E0; E23; E31
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T14:09:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b86d0319551f4fa091c8b0e8b7b66321 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2146-4138 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T14:09:07Z |
| publishDate | 2011-10-01 |
| publisher | EconJournals |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues |
| spelling | doaj.art-b86d0319551f4fa091c8b0e8b7b663212023-02-15T16:09:51ZengEconJournalsInternational Journal of Economics and Financial Issues2146-41382011-10-0114Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component ApproachFarzana Shaheen0Azad Haider1Sajid Amin Javed2Federal Urdu UniversityQuaid-e-Azam University Islamabad PakistanInternational Islamic UniversityThis paper envisages estimating the Time-Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (TV-NAIRU) as an unobserved stochastic variable for Pakistan over the time period 1973-74 to 2007-08 using Kalman filter. Results of the study are evident that TV-NAIRU increased from 5.3 percent (1990-91) to 8.12 percent (2004-05) and falls to 6.17 percent again in 2007-08 which is above the actual unemployment rate. The results also indicate that the NAIRU is a relevant concept and the unemployment gap should be one of the factors considered when assessing inflationary pressure in Pakistan. Keywords: Pakistan; Unemployment; Inflation; NAIRU; Phillips Curve JEL Classifications: E0; E23; E31 http://mail.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/43 |
| spellingShingle | Farzana Shaheen Azad Haider Sajid Amin Javed Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues |
| title | Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach |
| title_full | Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach |
| title_short | Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach |
| title_sort | estimating pakistan s time varying non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment an unobserved component approach |
| url | http://mail.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/43 |
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