Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models
Research on forecasting the seasonality and growth trend of natural gas (NG) production and consumption will help organize an analysis base for NG inspection and development, social issues, and allow industrials elements to operate effectively and reduce economic issues. In this situation, we handle...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/19/6021 |
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| author | Palanisamy Manigandan MD Shabbir Alam Majed Alharthi Uzma Khan Kuppusamy Alagirisamy Duraisamy Pachiyappan Abdul Rehman |
| author_facet | Palanisamy Manigandan MD Shabbir Alam Majed Alharthi Uzma Khan Kuppusamy Alagirisamy Duraisamy Pachiyappan Abdul Rehman |
| author_sort | Palanisamy Manigandan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research on forecasting the seasonality and growth trend of natural gas (NG) production and consumption will help organize an analysis base for NG inspection and development, social issues, and allow industrials elements to operate effectively and reduce economic issues. In this situation, we handle a comparison structure on the application of different models in monthly NG production and consumption forecasting using the cross-correlation function and then analyze the association between exogenous variables. Moreover, the SARIMA-X model is tested for US monthly NG production and consumption prediction via the proposed method for the first time in the literature review in this study. The performance of that model has been compared with SARIMA (<i>p</i>, <i>d</i>, <i>q</i>) * (<i>P</i>, <i>D</i>, <i>Q</i>)<sup>s</sup>. The results from RMSE and MAPE indicate that the superiority of the best model. By applying this method, the US monthly NG production and consumption is forecast until 2025. The success of the proposed method allows the use of seasonality patterns. If this seasonal approach continues, the United States’ NG production (16%) and consumption (24%) are expected to increase by 2025. The results of this study provide effective information for decision-makers on NG production and consumption to be credible and to determine energy planning and future sustainable energy policies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:04:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b876be18306c4a4fb1c029b688e84f4a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:04:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-b876be18306c4a4fb1c029b688e84f4a2023-11-22T15:58:07ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-09-011419602110.3390/en14196021Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX ModelsPalanisamy Manigandan0MD Shabbir Alam1Majed Alharthi2Uzma Khan3Kuppusamy Alagirisamy4Duraisamy Pachiyappan5Abdul Rehman6Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem P.O. Box 636011, Tamil Nadu, IndiaDepartment of Economics & Finance, College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Zallaq P.O. Box 2038, BahrainFinance Department, College of Business, King Abdulaziz University, Rabigh 21911, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem P.O. Box 636011, Tamil Nadu, IndiaDepartment of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem P.O. Box 636011, Tamil Nadu, IndiaCollege of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, ChinaResearch on forecasting the seasonality and growth trend of natural gas (NG) production and consumption will help organize an analysis base for NG inspection and development, social issues, and allow industrials elements to operate effectively and reduce economic issues. In this situation, we handle a comparison structure on the application of different models in monthly NG production and consumption forecasting using the cross-correlation function and then analyze the association between exogenous variables. Moreover, the SARIMA-X model is tested for US monthly NG production and consumption prediction via the proposed method for the first time in the literature review in this study. The performance of that model has been compared with SARIMA (<i>p</i>, <i>d</i>, <i>q</i>) * (<i>P</i>, <i>D</i>, <i>Q</i>)<sup>s</sup>. The results from RMSE and MAPE indicate that the superiority of the best model. By applying this method, the US monthly NG production and consumption is forecast until 2025. The success of the proposed method allows the use of seasonality patterns. If this seasonal approach continues, the United States’ NG production (16%) and consumption (24%) are expected to increase by 2025. The results of this study provide effective information for decision-makers on NG production and consumption to be credible and to determine energy planning and future sustainable energy policies.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/19/6021SARIMASARIMAXnatural gas production and consumptionforecast |
| spellingShingle | Palanisamy Manigandan MD Shabbir Alam Majed Alharthi Uzma Khan Kuppusamy Alagirisamy Duraisamy Pachiyappan Abdul Rehman Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models Energies SARIMA SARIMAX natural gas production and consumption forecast |
| title | Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models |
| title_full | Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models |
| title_short | Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models |
| title_sort | forecasting natural gas production and consumption in united states evidence from sarima and sarimax models |
| topic | SARIMA SARIMAX natural gas production and consumption forecast |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/19/6021 |
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