Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers
Recent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated under comparable conditions (low-probability, inaccurate fore...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2019-11-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500005404/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1827831622415679488 |
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| author | Robert N. Collins David R. Mandel |
| author_facet | Robert N. Collins David R. Mandel |
| author_sort | Robert N. Collins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated under comparable conditions (low-probability, inaccurate forecasts), but it was reversed for low-probability accurate forecasts and eliminated for high-probability forecasts. Experiment 2 further showed that verbal probabilities convey implicit recommendations more clearly than probability information, whereas numeric probabilities do the opposite. Descriptively, the findings indicate that the effect of probability words versus numbers on credibility depends on how these formats convey directionality differently, how directionality implies recommendations even when none are explicitly given, and how such recommendations correspond with outcomes. Prescriptively, we propose that experts distinguish forecasts from advice, using numeric probabilities for the former and well-reasoned arguments for the latter. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:52:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b8cdf93babde48308ae5b2c9d4f08d5e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:52:07Z |
| publishDate | 2019-11-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-b8cdf93babde48308ae5b2c9d4f08d5e2023-09-03T09:20:27ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752019-11-011468369510.1017/S1930297500005404Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbersRobert N. Collins0David R. Mandel1Intelligence, Influence and Collaboration Section, Toronto Research Centre, Defence Research and Development CanadaIntelligence, Influence and Collaboration Section, Toronto Research Centre, Defence Research and Development CanadaRecent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated under comparable conditions (low-probability, inaccurate forecasts), but it was reversed for low-probability accurate forecasts and eliminated for high-probability forecasts. Experiment 2 further showed that verbal probabilities convey implicit recommendations more clearly than probability information, whereas numeric probabilities do the opposite. Descriptively, the findings indicate that the effect of probability words versus numbers on credibility depends on how these formats convey directionality differently, how directionality implies recommendations even when none are explicitly given, and how such recommendations correspond with outcomes. Prescriptively, we propose that experts distinguish forecasts from advice, using numeric probabilities for the former and well-reasoned arguments for the latter.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500005404/type/journal_articlecredibilitynumeric probabilityverbal probabilitydirectionalityforecastsaccuracy |
| spellingShingle | Robert N. Collins David R. Mandel Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers Judgment and Decision Making credibility numeric probability verbal probability directionality forecasts accuracy |
| title | Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers |
| title_full | Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers |
| title_fullStr | Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers |
| title_short | Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers |
| title_sort | cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers |
| topic | credibility numeric probability verbal probability directionality forecasts accuracy |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500005404/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT robertncollins cultivatingcredibilitywithprobabilitywordsandnumbers AT davidrmandel cultivatingcredibilitywithprobabilitywordsandnumbers |