Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies
<p>The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past 2 decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. In 2015, large increases were projected in HFC use and em...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/6087/2022/acp-22-6087-2022.pdf |
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| author | G. J. M. Velders G. J. M. Velders J. S. Daniel S. A. Montzka I. Vimont I. Vimont M. Rigby P. B. Krummel J. Muhle S. O'Doherty R. G. Prinn R. F. Weiss D. Young |
| author_facet | G. J. M. Velders G. J. M. Velders J. S. Daniel S. A. Montzka I. Vimont I. Vimont M. Rigby P. B. Krummel J. Muhle S. O'Doherty R. G. Prinn R. F. Weiss D. Young |
| author_sort | G. J. M. Velders |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past 2 decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. In 2015, large increases were projected in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub> eq.</span> inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="d036ef648778f827bceaef280bf77a3e"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00001.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017–2019, mainly because of the lower global emissions
of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and the lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time period preceded the beginning of the Kigali provisions, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications in anticipation of national or global mandates. There are two new HFC scenarios developed based (1) on current trends in HFC use and Kigali-independent (K-I) control policies currently existing in several countries and (2) current HFC trends and compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2022). These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0–5.3 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="f50b990a925a044e3e0d25f6a02e5d46"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00002.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> to 1.9–3.6 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="7afe7d8d36da7cf004eba28e01dac359"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00003.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00003.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>. The added provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to
reduce the emissions further to 0.9–1.0 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="bbb9160cde769323da0319074d6cd0b7"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00004.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00004.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> in 2050. Without any controls, projections suggest a HFC contribution of
0.28–0.44 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> to global surface warming by 2100, compared to a temperature contribution of 0.14–0.31 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> that is projected
considering the national K-I policies current in place. Warming from HFCs is additionally limited by the Kigali Amendment controls to a contribution of about 0.04 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> by 2100.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T14:45:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b8fe94db8ead47e0a24994ff7102e3f1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T14:45:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-b8fe94db8ead47e0a24994ff7102e3f12022-12-22T00:21:07ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242022-05-01226087610110.5194/acp-22-6087-2022Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policiesG. J. M. Velders0G. J. M. Velders1J. S. Daniel2S. A. Montzka3I. Vimont4I. Vimont5M. Rigby6P. B. Krummel7J. Muhle8S. O'Doherty9R. G. Prinn10R. F. Weiss11D. Young12Centre for Environmental Quality, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, the NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsNOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, Colorado, USANOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) Boulder, Colorado, USANOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) Boulder, Colorado, USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USASchool of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKClimate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, AustraliaScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USASchool of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKCenter for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USAScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USASchool of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK<p>The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past 2 decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. In 2015, large increases were projected in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub> eq.</span> inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="d036ef648778f827bceaef280bf77a3e"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00001.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017–2019, mainly because of the lower global emissions of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and the lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time period preceded the beginning of the Kigali provisions, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications in anticipation of national or global mandates. There are two new HFC scenarios developed based (1) on current trends in HFC use and Kigali-independent (K-I) control policies currently existing in several countries and (2) current HFC trends and compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2022). These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0–5.3 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="f50b990a925a044e3e0d25f6a02e5d46"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00002.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> to 1.9–3.6 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="7afe7d8d36da7cf004eba28e01dac359"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00003.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00003.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>. The added provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to reduce the emissions further to 0.9–1.0 <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">Gt</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msub><mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mi><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn></msub><mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mi mathvariant="normal">eq</mi><mo>.</mo><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="bbb9160cde769323da0319074d6cd0b7"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00004.svg" width="73pt" height="16pt" src="acp-22-6087-2022-ie00004.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> in 2050. Without any controls, projections suggest a HFC contribution of 0.28–0.44 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> to global surface warming by 2100, compared to a temperature contribution of 0.14–0.31 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> that is projected considering the national K-I policies current in place. Warming from HFCs is additionally limited by the Kigali Amendment controls to a contribution of about 0.04 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> by 2100.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/6087/2022/acp-22-6087-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | G. J. M. Velders G. J. M. Velders J. S. Daniel S. A. Montzka I. Vimont I. Vimont M. Rigby P. B. Krummel J. Muhle S. O'Doherty R. G. Prinn R. F. Weiss D. Young Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |
| title_full | Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |
| title_fullStr | Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |
| title_short | Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |
| title_sort | projections of hydrofluorocarbon hfc emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/6087/2022/acp-22-6087-2022.pdf |
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