Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland
Abstract National meteorological and hydrological services issue warnings for severe weather events, typically based on stakeholder‐agreed fixed thresholds of meteorological parameters such as wind speeds or precipitation amounts. Yet societal decisions on preventive actions depend on the expected i...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-11-01
|
| Series: | Meteorological Applications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2035 |
| _version_ | 1828136197554176000 |
|---|---|
| author | Thomas Röösli Christof Appenzeller David N. Bresch |
| author_facet | Thomas Röösli Christof Appenzeller David N. Bresch |
| author_sort | Thomas Röösli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract National meteorological and hydrological services issue warnings for severe weather events, typically based on stakeholder‐agreed fixed thresholds of meteorological parameters such as wind speeds or precipitation amounts. Yet societal decisions on preventive actions depend on the expected impacts of the weather event. In order to better inform such preventive actions, meteorological services are currently working towards including expected impacts into their warnings. We develop an open‐source impact forecasting system for building damage due to winter windstorms in Switzerland. It combines a numerical ensemble weather prediction model with exposure and vulnerability data. This system forecasts expected building damage in Swiss Francs with a 2‐day lead time on a 500‐m grid or aggregated to administrative regions. We compare the forecasted building damage with insurance claims in the canton of Zurich. The uncertainty of the impact forecasts is large. For the majority of days with severe winter windstorm damage, the mean forecasted damage was in the right order of magnitude, with one missed event and one false alarm. For thunderstorms and foehn storms, the rate of missed events and false alarms is much higher, most likely related to the limited meteorological forecast skill. Such impact forecasts can inform decision makers on preventive actions, such as allocating emergency response and other assets. Additionally, impact forecasts could also help communicating the severity of the upcoming event to the general public as well as indirectly help meteorological forecasters with taking warning decisions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T17:58:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b8fef49c5f5e4f08864c58f7480b8e08 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1350-4827 1469-8080 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T17:58:59Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorological Applications |
| spelling | doaj.art-b8fef49c5f5e4f08864c58f7480b8e082022-12-22T04:10:34ZengWileyMeteorological Applications1350-48271469-80802021-11-01286n/an/a10.1002/met.2035Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in SwitzerlandThomas Röösli0Christof Appenzeller1David N. Bresch2Institute for Environmental Decisions ETH Zurich Zurich SwitzerlandFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Zurich SwitzerlandInstitute for Environmental Decisions ETH Zurich Zurich SwitzerlandAbstract National meteorological and hydrological services issue warnings for severe weather events, typically based on stakeholder‐agreed fixed thresholds of meteorological parameters such as wind speeds or precipitation amounts. Yet societal decisions on preventive actions depend on the expected impacts of the weather event. In order to better inform such preventive actions, meteorological services are currently working towards including expected impacts into their warnings. We develop an open‐source impact forecasting system for building damage due to winter windstorms in Switzerland. It combines a numerical ensemble weather prediction model with exposure and vulnerability data. This system forecasts expected building damage in Swiss Francs with a 2‐day lead time on a 500‐m grid or aggregated to administrative regions. We compare the forecasted building damage with insurance claims in the canton of Zurich. The uncertainty of the impact forecasts is large. For the majority of days with severe winter windstorm damage, the mean forecasted damage was in the right order of magnitude, with one missed event and one false alarm. For thunderstorms and foehn storms, the rate of missed events and false alarms is much higher, most likely related to the limited meteorological forecast skill. Such impact forecasts can inform decision makers on preventive actions, such as allocating emergency response and other assets. Additionally, impact forecasts could also help communicating the severity of the upcoming event to the general public as well as indirectly help meteorological forecasters with taking warning decisions.https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2035building damageimpact forecastimpact modellingimpact‐based warningnumerical weather prediction |
| spellingShingle | Thomas Röösli Christof Appenzeller David N. Bresch Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland Meteorological Applications building damage impact forecast impact modelling impact‐based warning numerical weather prediction |
| title | Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland |
| title_full | Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland |
| title_fullStr | Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland |
| title_short | Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland |
| title_sort | towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in switzerland |
| topic | building damage impact forecast impact modelling impact‐based warning numerical weather prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2035 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thomasroosli towardsoperationalimpactforecastingofbuildingdamagefromwinterwindstormsinswitzerland AT christofappenzeller towardsoperationalimpactforecastingofbuildingdamagefromwinterwindstormsinswitzerland AT davidnbresch towardsoperationalimpactforecastingofbuildingdamagefromwinterwindstormsinswitzerland |