Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study
Abstract Background Worldwide, gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality. This study aims to devise and validate a scoring system based on readily available clinical data to predict the risk of gastric cancer in a large Chinese population. Methods We included a total of 6,2...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Cancer Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.6629 |
| _version_ | 1827698509437992960 |
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| author | Martin C. S. Wong Eman Yee‐man Leung Sarah T. Y. Yau Sze Chai Chan Shaohua Xie Wanghong Xu Junjie Huang |
| author_facet | Martin C. S. Wong Eman Yee‐man Leung Sarah T. Y. Yau Sze Chai Chan Shaohua Xie Wanghong Xu Junjie Huang |
| author_sort | Martin C. S. Wong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Worldwide, gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality. This study aims to devise and validate a scoring system based on readily available clinical data to predict the risk of gastric cancer in a large Chinese population. Methods We included a total of 6,209,697 subjects aged between 18 and 70 years who have received upper digestive endoscopy in Hong Kong from 1997 to 2018. A binary logistic regression model was constructed to examine the predictors of gastric cancer in a derivation cohort (n = 4,347,224), followed by model evaluation in a validation cohort (n = 1,862,473). The algorithm's discriminatory ability was evaluated as the area under the curve (AUC) of the mathematically constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Age, male gender, history of Helicobacter pylori infection, use of proton pump inhibitors, non‐use of aspirin, non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and statins were significantly associated with gastric cancer. A scoring of ≤8 was designated as “average risk (AR)”. Scores at 9 or above were assigned as “high risk (HR)”. The prevalence of gastric cancer was 1.81% and 0.096%, respectively, for the HR and LR groups. The AUC for the risk score in the validation cohort was 0.834, implying an excellent fit of the model. Conclusions This study has validated a simple, accurate, and easy‐to‐use scoring algorithm which has a high discriminatory capability to predict gastric cancer. The score could be adopted to risk stratify subjects suspected as having gastric cancer, thus allowing prioritized upper digestive tract investigation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:31:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b9311272d63b4fc48398a923f5af07af |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7634 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:31:19Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cancer Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-b9311272d63b4fc48398a923f5af07af2023-11-21T07:57:35ZengWileyCancer Medicine2045-76342023-11-011221205442055310.1002/cam4.6629Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation studyMartin C. S. Wong0Eman Yee‐man Leung1Sarah T. Y. Yau2Sze Chai Chan3Shaohua Xie4Wanghong Xu5Junjie Huang6The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR ChinaThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR ChinaThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR ChinaThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR ChinaDepartment of Molecular medicine and Surgery Karolinska Institutet SwedenSchool of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai ChinaThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR ChinaAbstract Background Worldwide, gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality. This study aims to devise and validate a scoring system based on readily available clinical data to predict the risk of gastric cancer in a large Chinese population. Methods We included a total of 6,209,697 subjects aged between 18 and 70 years who have received upper digestive endoscopy in Hong Kong from 1997 to 2018. A binary logistic regression model was constructed to examine the predictors of gastric cancer in a derivation cohort (n = 4,347,224), followed by model evaluation in a validation cohort (n = 1,862,473). The algorithm's discriminatory ability was evaluated as the area under the curve (AUC) of the mathematically constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Age, male gender, history of Helicobacter pylori infection, use of proton pump inhibitors, non‐use of aspirin, non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and statins were significantly associated with gastric cancer. A scoring of ≤8 was designated as “average risk (AR)”. Scores at 9 or above were assigned as “high risk (HR)”. The prevalence of gastric cancer was 1.81% and 0.096%, respectively, for the HR and LR groups. The AUC for the risk score in the validation cohort was 0.834, implying an excellent fit of the model. Conclusions This study has validated a simple, accurate, and easy‐to‐use scoring algorithm which has a high discriminatory capability to predict gastric cancer. The score could be adopted to risk stratify subjects suspected as having gastric cancer, thus allowing prioritized upper digestive tract investigation.https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.6629aspiringastric cancerpredictorsproton pump inhibitorsrisk score |
| spellingShingle | Martin C. S. Wong Eman Yee‐man Leung Sarah T. Y. Yau Sze Chai Chan Shaohua Xie Wanghong Xu Junjie Huang Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study Cancer Medicine aspirin gastric cancer predictors proton pump inhibitors risk score |
| title | Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study |
| title_full | Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study |
| title_fullStr | Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study |
| title_short | Prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population: A validation study |
| title_sort | prediction algorithm for gastric cancer in a general population a validation study |
| topic | aspirin gastric cancer predictors proton pump inhibitors risk score |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.6629 |
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