An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia
An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiven...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Communication in Biomathematical Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/13611 |
| _version_ | 1797245003386322944 |
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| author | Meksianis Z. Ndii Panji Hadisoemarto Dwi Agustian Asep K. Supriatna |
| author_facet | Meksianis Z. Ndii Panji Hadisoemarto Dwi Agustian Asep K. Supriatna |
| author_sort | Meksianis Z. Ndii |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiveness of current strategies: reducing the transmission rate and speeding up the time to detect infected individuals. The reproductive ratio and the probability of extinction are determined. We found that the combination of both strategies is effective to slow down the epidemics. We also find that speeding up the time to detect infected individuals without reducing the transmission rate is not sufficient to slow down the epidemics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:20:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b96f000a1ed040d3ae62b690bfb569a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2549-2896 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:20:00Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communication in Biomathematical Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-b96f000a1ed040d3ae62b690bfb569a92024-03-26T01:29:14ZengIndonesian Bio-Mathematical SocietyCommunication in Biomathematical Sciences2549-28962020-06-0131192710.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.34167An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi ArabiaMeksianis Z. Ndii0Panji Hadisoemarto1Dwi Agustian2Asep K. Supriatna3Department of Mathematics, University of Nusa Cendana, Kupang-NTTDepartment of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Padjadjaran UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Padjadjaran UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, Padjadjaran UniversityAn outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiveness of current strategies: reducing the transmission rate and speeding up the time to detect infected individuals. The reproductive ratio and the probability of extinction are determined. We found that the combination of both strategies is effective to slow down the epidemics. We also find that speeding up the time to detect infected individuals without reducing the transmission rate is not sufficient to slow down the epidemics.https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/13611covid-19deterministicstochasticreproductive ratioprobability of extinction |
| spellingShingle | Meksianis Z. Ndii Panji Hadisoemarto Dwi Agustian Asep K. Supriatna An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia Communication in Biomathematical Sciences covid-19 deterministic stochastic reproductive ratio probability of extinction |
| title | An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia |
| title_full | An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia |
| title_fullStr | An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia |
| title_short | An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia |
| title_sort | analysis of covid 19 transmission in indonesia and saudi arabia |
| topic | covid-19 deterministic stochastic reproductive ratio probability of extinction |
| url | https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/13611 |
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