A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to determine what variables contribute to the early death of elderly colorectal cancer patients (ECRC) and to generate predictive nomograms for this population.MethodsThis retrospective cohort analysis included elderly individuals (≥75 years old) diagnosed with co...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1278137/full |
| _version_ | 1797387690151247872 |
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| author | Qi Wang Kexin Shen Bingyuan Fei Hai Luo Ruiqi Li Zeming Wang Mengqiang Wei Zhongshi Xie |
| author_facet | Qi Wang Kexin Shen Bingyuan Fei Hai Luo Ruiqi Li Zeming Wang Mengqiang Wei Zhongshi Xie |
| author_sort | Qi Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | PurposeThe purpose of this study is to determine what variables contribute to the early death of elderly colorectal cancer patients (ECRC) and to generate predictive nomograms for this population.MethodsThis retrospective cohort analysis included elderly individuals (≥75 years old) diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) from 2010-2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result databases (SEER) databases. The external validation was conducted using a sample of the Chinese population obtained from the China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University. Logistic regression analyses were used to ascertain variables associated with early death and to develop nomograms. The nomograms were internally and externally validated with the help of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe SEER cohort consisted of 28,111 individuals, while the Chinese cohort contained 315 cases. Logistic regression analyses shown that race, marital status, tumor size, Grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, bone metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early death in ECRC patients; The variable of sex was only related to an increased risk of all-cause early death, whereas the factor of insurance status was solely associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific early death. Subsequently, two nomograms were devised to estimate the likelihood of all-cause and cancer-specific early death among individuals with ECRC. The nomograms exhibited robust predictive accuracy for predicting early death of ECRC patients, as evidenced by both internal and external validation.ConclusionWe developed two easy-to-use nomograms to predicting the likelihood of early death in ECRC patients, which would contribute significantly to the improvement of clinical decision-making and the formulation of personalized treatment approaches for this particular population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:28:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b9a9bba2cf4b4855a267541d69e20867 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:28:39Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-b9a9bba2cf4b4855a267541d69e208672023-12-18T07:39:45ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2023-12-011310.3389/fonc.2023.12781371278137A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based studyQi WangKexin ShenBingyuan FeiHai LuoRuiqi LiZeming WangMengqiang WeiZhongshi XiePurposeThe purpose of this study is to determine what variables contribute to the early death of elderly colorectal cancer patients (ECRC) and to generate predictive nomograms for this population.MethodsThis retrospective cohort analysis included elderly individuals (≥75 years old) diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) from 2010-2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result databases (SEER) databases. The external validation was conducted using a sample of the Chinese population obtained from the China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University. Logistic regression analyses were used to ascertain variables associated with early death and to develop nomograms. The nomograms were internally and externally validated with the help of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe SEER cohort consisted of 28,111 individuals, while the Chinese cohort contained 315 cases. Logistic regression analyses shown that race, marital status, tumor size, Grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, bone metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early death in ECRC patients; The variable of sex was only related to an increased risk of all-cause early death, whereas the factor of insurance status was solely associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific early death. Subsequently, two nomograms were devised to estimate the likelihood of all-cause and cancer-specific early death among individuals with ECRC. The nomograms exhibited robust predictive accuracy for predicting early death of ECRC patients, as evidenced by both internal and external validation.ConclusionWe developed two easy-to-use nomograms to predicting the likelihood of early death in ECRC patients, which would contribute significantly to the improvement of clinical decision-making and the formulation of personalized treatment approaches for this particular population.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1278137/fullearly deathnomogramcolorectal cancerSEER (surveillance epidemiology and end results) databaseelderly patients |
| spellingShingle | Qi Wang Kexin Shen Bingyuan Fei Hai Luo Ruiqi Li Zeming Wang Mengqiang Wei Zhongshi Xie A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study Frontiers in Oncology early death nomogram colorectal cancer SEER (surveillance epidemiology and end results) database elderly patients |
| title | A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_full | A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_fullStr | A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_short | A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_sort | predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients a population based study |
| topic | early death nomogram colorectal cancer SEER (surveillance epidemiology and end results) database elderly patients |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1278137/full |
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